Opposition's Southern Gambit: A Battle for Political Supremacy from Bengal to Tamil Nadu and Kerala
In a dynamic political landscape, the Opposition is strategizing to regain momentum as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) intensifies its efforts to pave a clear road towards the 2029 general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has swiftly redirected his focus to the poll-bound states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, signaling the BJP's aggressive push to expand its influence in the southern region of India.
Regional Strongholds and Electoral Dynamics
The year 2026 presents a critical opportunity for the Opposition, provided it navigates the complexities effectively. In West Bengal, the feisty Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is determined to resist any BJP incursions into her Trinamool Congress (TMC) stronghold during the upcoming Assembly elections. Meanwhile, in Tamil Nadu, DMK chief M. K. Stalin maintains a firm grip on power, while in Kerala, the Congress party stands as the principal challenger, well-positioned to contest the incumbent CPI(M) government. However, in Assam, the Congress faces an uphill battle against BJP Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, highlighting the unpredictable nature of political contests.
BJP's Strategic Moves and Organizational Shifts
The ruling BJP has gained momentum early in the year with significant victories, including the capture of the cash-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) in alliance with Eknath Shinde, and sweeping civic bodies across Maharashtra. This winning streak was further bolstered by the election of Nitin Nabin as the party's new national president. At 45, Nabin, a five-time Bihar MLA, becomes the BJP's youngest-ever president, marking a watershed moment that emphasizes organizational primacy under the leadership of the party's top brass, much to the satisfaction of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
Southern Focus: Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the Spotlight
Prime Minister Modi has wasted no time in targeting the southern states, with Kerala and Tamil Nadu slated for polls in April. Although the BJP is not a major player in these states, it has made notable inroads, such as a stunning win in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation during recent local body polls. In Kerala, the BJP garnered 14.7% of the votes, while the Congress led with over 29%. To capitalize on this momentum, Modi conducted an impressive roadshow in Thiruvananthapuram, drawing parallels to the BJP's historic rise in Gujarat. Additionally, the posthumous conferment of Padma Vibhushan on former Kerala CM V. S. Achuthanandan has sparked discussions and sent strategic messages in the state.
Alliances and Power Plays in Tamil Nadu
In Tamil Nadu, Modi has adopted a two-pronged strategy, launching sharp attacks against the DMK for alleged corruption and dynastic politics while unveiling a broader National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The BJP has successfully brought T. T. V. Dhinakaran, chief of the AMMK, into the NDA fold, aiming to strengthen its hold among the Thevar community. Former state BJP chief K. Annamalai, who had elevated the party's profile, has been reintegrated into the BJP's plans after stepping down to facilitate alliances. However, power-sharing arrangements with the AIADMK remain unresolved, with observers speculating that a hung Assembly could benefit the BJP, especially if the Congress aligns with actor-turned-politician Vijay's TVK, emerging as a third pole.
Congress's Internal Challenges and Electoral Prospects
The Congress party faces internal rifts, particularly in Kerala, where the Tharoor factor has caused discomfort. Despite disagreements over issues like Operation Sindoor, the party has opted not to expel Shashi Tharoor, given his significant standing. However, recent events, including a perceived snub by Rahul Gandhi, have highlighted tensions. Any internal discord at this stage could dent the Congress's electoral prospects, potentially benefiting the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and BJP. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress-led UDF won 18 of 20 seats in Kerala, underscoring its strong position, but the party must navigate these challenges carefully.
BJP's Long-Term Vision and Upcoming Battles
The BJP's strategy in Kerala focuses on expanding influence and preventing a Congress victory, even if it means tolerating a Left government. The party recognizes the psychological advantage that Opposition wins in upcoming elections could provide and is pulling out all stops to counter it. Looking ahead, the BJP faces crucial tests in 2027, with polls in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Punjab, which will significantly influence its trajectory towards the 2029 general elections. As political dynamics evolve, the battle for supremacy in India's southern states remains a key determinant of future national politics.
