Shashi Tharoor Dismisses BJP's Role in Kerala as Marginal, Foresees Limited Electoral Gains
In a candid assessment of the political landscape in Kerala, senior Congress leader and MP from Thiruvananthapuram, Shashi Tharoor, has described the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a marginal player in the state's upcoming assembly polls. Tharoor emphasized that the contest will primarily be a direct battle between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), with the BJP at best only capable of "breaking their duck" by securing a handful of seats.
BJP's Struggles in Kerala: From Zero Seats to Minimal Influence
Speaking exclusively to PTI before hitting the campaign trail, Tharoor highlighted the BJP's historical challenges in Kerala. "It is not a triangular contest, for the BJP is a zero-seat party in the assembly. From zero, if they go to one or two or three, they will be extremely proud and happy, and they will congratulate themselves on a great win. That is the situation the BJP is in," he stated. Tharoor further argued that the BJP lacks the significant footprint required to act as a kingmaker in the state, reinforcing that the real competition lies between the LDF and UDF.
However, Tharoor acknowledged that current polling data indicates a tight race, making every seat and vote crucial. "Therefore, we are not discounting the BJP and being complacent about it," he added, showing a cautious approach despite his dismissive tone.
Vote Share Analysis and Historical Context
When questioned about the BJP's marginal status, Tharoor provided a detailed breakdown of their electoral performance over the years. "In my time in politics, which is now just over 17 years, they have gone from being a six per cent party to being a 12-13 per cent party, which is not a bad thing. In the Lok Sabha elections, they have gone as high as 19 per cent, but in state elections, they again fall to about 12-13 per cent," he explained. He noted that any improvement for the BJP would likely be slow and gradual, with limited prospects for winning seats due to the high vote threshold required.
Tharoor pointed out that "you cannot win a seat anywhere without at least 35 per cent of the vote in that seat," and identified only two or three constituencies in Kerala where the BJP might be in contention to reach such numbers.
Past Election Results and Future Outlook
The 2021 Assembly elections saw the incumbent LDF retain power with 99 seats, marking the first time an alliance won consecutive terms in Kerala since 1977. The UDF secured 41 seats, while the BJP drew a blank. However, in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP managed a breakthrough with Suresh Gopi winning the Thrissur seat, showcasing a slight improvement in their parliamentary performance.
Looking ahead to the Assembly election for 140 seats scheduled for April 9, Tharoor reiterated that the Congress does not view the BJP as a threat to governance in Kerala. "The best they can do, as I say, is to break their duck," he concluded, underscoring the BJP's limited role in the state's political dynamics.
This analysis from Tharoor sheds light on the evolving electoral strategies and challenges faced by national parties in regional strongholds like Kerala, where traditional alliances continue to dominate the political scene.
