West Bengal Assembly Election 2026: A Crucial Political Battle Looms
The political landscape of West Bengal is set for a significant showdown as the state prepares for the Assembly Election this year. This electoral contest will serve as a critical examination of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's governance and leadership, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) aiming to secure a fourth consecutive term in power.
Historical Context and Current Challenge
Mamata Banerjee, who has served as the chief minister of West Bengal since 2011, rose to prominence by ending the Communist Party of India (Marxist)'s three-decade-long rule in the state. Now, the TMC faces a formidable opponent in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which currently governs over 20 states across India. The question on everyone's mind is whether the TMC can retain its dominance or if the BJP will make significant inroads in this crucial eastern state.
Survey Insights: TMC Holds Edge but BJP Gains Momentum
The recently released India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) 2026 survey provides valuable insights into the current political climate. According to the survey, if Lok Sabha elections were held today in West Bengal, the TMC would likely repeat its performance from the 2024 general elections, retaining most of the seats it won that year.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC secured a commanding majority of 29 out of 42 parliamentary constituencies, while the BJP won 12 seats and the Congress managed just one. This outcome was particularly noteworthy as several opinion polls had previously given the BJP an advantage over the TMC in Bengal.
The latest MOTN survey reveals a slight shift in projections:
- The TMC's seat tally is now projected at 28 seats, a marginal dip from the 29 seats won in 2024
- This represents a downward revision from the August MOTN survey, which had projected the TMC to increase its tally to 31 seats
- The BJP, meanwhile, is projected to increase its seat share to 14 seats, up from the 11 seats projected in the August edition
- The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to register a three-percentage-point rise in vote share, increasing from 39% to 42%
Election Preparations Intensify
With the West Bengal Assembly Election approaching, both major political parties have intensified their preparations. The BJP has finalized a detailed list of Prabasi leaders from various states to strengthen its election campaign across different zones of West Bengal, including:
- Nabadwip
- Kolkata
- Howrah-Hooghly-Midnapore region
This strategic deployment includes senior leaders, legislators, former ministers, organizational office-bearers, and youth leaders from states such as Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, and Tripura. These leaders will work in coordination with the West Bengal BJP unit to oversee organizational activities, election preparedness, and grassroots mobilization in their allotted districts.
Meanwhile, West Bengal State President Samik Bhattacharya has appointed in-charges for all 294 assembly constituencies for the upcoming Legislative Assembly elections. This comprehensive organizational restructuring aims to strengthen the party's presence across the state.
High-Profile Visits and Strategic Meetings
Adding to the political momentum, Union Home Minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah is scheduled to visit West Bengal on January 30 and 31. During his two-day tour, Shah is expected to hold important organizational and political meetings, further energizing the party cadre and reviewing preparations for the upcoming electoral challenges.
The MOTN survey, released approximately two months ahead of the West Bengal Assembly elections, serves as a valuable indicator of the current mood among voters in the poll-bound state. As the election campaign gains traction, political observers will be closely monitoring how these survey projections translate into actual electoral outcomes in what promises to be one of India's most closely watched state elections.
