BJD's Political Grip Weakens in Nuapada
The Biju Janata Dal (BJD) suffered a devastating defeat in the Nuapada assembly by-election, finishing a distant third with a mere 18.07% vote share – its lowest ever performance in this constituency. This result signals a continuing downward spiral for the party following its massive electoral setback in the 2024 state elections.
A Campaign That Failed to Resonate
Despite deploying its full organizational machinery and a high-energy campaign led by former chief minister Naveen Patnaik, the BJD's attempt to reinvent itself fell completely flat. The party's candidate, Snehangini Chhuria, who was labeled an 'outsider' by political opponents, managed to secure only 38,408 votes, barely crossing the 16.6% threshold needed to save her security deposit.
The erosion of BJD's support base in Nuapada has been consistent, dropping from 39.75% in 2019 to 33.65% in the 2024 general elections. However, this bypoll witnessed a complete collapse of the party's traditional vote bank.
The Defection That Changed Everything
The bypoll was necessitated by the death of sitting BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia in September. In a significant blow to the BJD, his son Jay Dholakia switched allegiance to the BJP and contested as their candidate, dealing a severe psychological and tactical blow to his former party.
Naveen Patnaik attempted a counter-offensive by branding the BJP as 'beiman' (betrayer) and a 'candidate thief', but this rhetoric failed to connect with voters. Political analyst Rabi Das observed, "The record 83.45% voter turnout, significantly higher than the 75.44% polling in 2024, indicated that voters were with the Dholakia family, not with BJD."
Structural Issues and Future Implications
Analysts point to deeper problems within the BJD, including its inability to protect its traditional vote bank, failure to attract new voters, and growing internal discord. The party is grappling with significant infighting and a steady exodus of leaders to the BJP.
Following the results, Naveen Patnaik wrote on X: "BJD has lived through many highs and lows, yet our resolve to fight for the people has remained unbreakable, and it will continue to remain so." While the former chief minister refrained from citing reasons for the defeat, senior party vice-president Debi Prasad Mishra accused the BJP of adopting unfair means during the 48-hour silence period and manipulating votes.
This poor performance in Nuapada is expected to have significant repercussions for the BJD in the upcoming urban local body and panchayat elections, potentially signaling further challenges for the once-dominant political force in Odisha.
