BJP Aims for Expanded Seat Share in Tamil Nadu Alliance Negotiations with AIADMK
In the lead-up to the upcoming assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is actively pressing for a significantly larger share of seats within its alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Following its performance in the 2021 elections, where it secured four out of the twenty seats contested as an AIADMK ally, BJP leaders have expressed a strong desire to increase their representation. According to sources, the party is targeting at least one seat per district, which would translate to a substantial allocation given Tamil Nadu's 38 districts.
AIADMK's Offer and Alliance Unity
In response, AIADMK leaders have indicated a willingness to offer its prime ally 25 seats, with the possibility of this number rising to 30 based on seat selection and the final composition of allies. Both parties have reaffirmed their commitment to remaining united, a stance that will be prominently displayed during key political events. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Madurai on March 1 and hold a public rally in Trichy on March 11, events expected to highlight the strength of the alliance.
A senior AIADMK leader emphasized that BJP's national leadership is focused on securing constituencies with a high probability of victory, rather than merely negotiating for a higher quantity of seats. This strategic approach aligns with AIADMK's offer, which is contingent on careful seat choices and the overall alliance structure.
Historical Performance and Current Dynamics
In the 2021 assembly elections, BJP achieved victories in four constituencies: Modakurichi, Coimbatore South, Tirunelveli, and Nagercoil, represented by C Saraswathi, Vanathi Srinivasan, Nainar Nagenthran, and M R Gandhi, respectively. The victory margins varied widely, from a narrow 281 votes in Modakurichi to over 23,000 votes in Tirunelveli. However, the party also faced significant defeats in several seats, such as Dharapuram where Union minister L Murugan lost by 1,393 votes, and others like Harbour and Thalli with margins ranging from 21,000 to 95,000 votes.
More recently, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu, BJP emerged as the runner-up in approximately 50 assembly segments, indicating a growing but still challenging presence. Some local BJP functionaries argue that the party should demand up to 40 seats, citing the diminished importance of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) due to internal splits and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) aligning with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). However, a state functionary noted that the poll deal is ultimately negotiated by the national leadership, limiting local influence.
Campaign Activities and Alliance Considerations
Union minister Piyush Goyal, who oversees BJP's election campaign in Tamil Nadu, is anticipated to visit the state soon to bolster efforts. Meanwhile, both AIADMK and BJP are closely monitoring developments within the PMK, where founder Ramadoss has called a meeting of district secretaries and Vanniyar Sangam office-bearers to discuss electoral strategy. Internal divisions within PMK, with some members favoring AIADMK and others leaning towards the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), have left Ramadoss evaluating options.
An AIADMK former minister clarified that the party will only form alliances with entities that possess a recognized name and symbol, underscoring the importance of established political identity. On the campaign front, AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami is set to campaign in Maduravoyal and Poonamallee on February 25, followed by visits to Tambaram and Pallavaram on February 26, as part of the alliance's preparatory activities.
