Thiruvananthapuram: With just four days remaining until the assembly election results are announced, exit polls released on Tuesday indicate a narrow advantage for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The projections suggest that any anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) may not translate into a decisive wave but could result in a slender lead for the opposition coalition.
Exit Poll Projections
The polls also indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to secure a foothold in the assembly, potentially winning a few seats. Projections by Times Now-JVC suggest that the UDF could return to power after a decade in opposition. Surveys conducted by Axis My India, People's Pulse, CNN-News18, and P Marq echo a similar trend, with some indicating a vote share lead of around 5% for the UDF.
Confidence on Both Sides
Despite these projections, both fronts remain confident. The LDF is hopeful of retaining power, even if by a narrow margin, while UDF leaders predict a tally exceeding 85 seats, possibly crossing 90 if a strong wave emerges in their favor. The NDA, too, expects to improve its performance compared to the previous election.
Axis My India's analysis points to a tight contest but gives the UDF a clear edge, projecting a 44% vote share for the UDF, 39% for the LDF, and 14% for the NDA. The UDF appears to have gained among young voters, with 51% of first-time voters backing the coalition — an increase of 13% from the previous election — while the LDF has seen a corresponding dip in this demographic.
Seat Projections
Seat projections vary across different agencies. Times Now estimates 72-84 seats for the UDF and 52-61 for the LDF; Matrize gives 70-75 and 60-65 respectively; Vote Vibe projects 70-80 and 58-68; People's Pulse 75-85 and 55-65; and P Marq 71-79 and 62-69. Most surveys give the NDA between one and five seats.
Historical Context
In the 2021 assembly elections, the LDF broke the state's pattern of alternating governments, winning 99 seats, with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) securing 62 seats. Most exit polls correctly predicted that outcome, adding a note of caution to the current projections. Results will be declared on May 4, alongside those of Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry.
