India Needs to Reassess Its National Interests Regarding the Gulf of Hormuz
The second round of talks between Iran and the United States has failed to materialize. The situation remains deadlocked, with a ceasefire in place but Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz while the US has imposed a naval blockade in the Gulf in retaliation. Both actions are fundamentally wrong as they interfere with the governance of global commons.
President Donald Trump remains reluctant to negotiate, and most of his communications consist of threats in capital letters posted on X. However, publicly insulting the other party is not a solid foundation for talks. The substance and secrecy of negotiations have been fundamentally altered by the speed of social media. There is now a rapid oscillation between escalation and diplomacy, changing by the hour and influencing commodity prices, currency values, and stock indexes worldwide, including in India.
US and Iran Positions
The US demands focus on three pillars of Iran's security: its nuclear ambitions, missile program (which now includes drones), and regional proxies. Iran's position is more limited. It has apparently signaled willingness to temporarily limit enrichment, reduce stockpiles, and accept international monitoring in exchange for sanctions relief and unfreezing of its accounts. Missile forces and regional relationships were not on the table. Additionally, a second war in the midst of talks made it essential for Iran to demand a guaranteed, comprehensive non-aggression pact.
A new sticking point has emerged: the US naval blockade of Hormuz. While a ceasefire is essential to stop bombing, the blockade and closure of the Strait of Hormuz under relevant international law provisions constitute an act of war.
Sustainability of the Blockade
The key question is how long the blockade can be sustained. Iran believes it can outlast the pressure, drawing a parallel to Afghanistan where the Taliban absorbed pain and turned time into a strategic asset. Unfortunately, time is not a solution; it leads to deeper instability, as the Strait of Hormuz is not a remote mountain highway but a critical artery for global energy flow and a geopolitical lever of influence.
The world currently faces three conflicts, but not all wars are fought alike. The Ukraine War has lasted over four years, while the war in Gaza and Lebanon has continued for over two years. Both are bloody but ineffective in their own ways. Israel has failed to eliminate threats on its borders, while Hamas and Hezbollah, though weakened, retain their grip. In comparison, the present Iran War is barely two months old. Although Ukraine has exposed the depleted arsenals of European nations, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the widening of the conflict by engaging targets in the Gulf have caused devastating ripples across the globe.
When asked by a reporter on 20 March whether the US was at war, President Trump replied, “It depends what your definition of war is. Also, I never said war. I said kinetic peace. Great phrase. Someone give me credit.”
Iran's War Preparations
Iran has been attacked twice, both times in the middle of ongoing talks. Before the war began, Iran was negotiating but also preparing for conflict. Its war preparations involved four interconnected strategies: dispersal and delegation (mosaic defense), succession redundancies to offset decapitation strikes, horizontal escalation to raise the cost of war by attacking Gulf States, and blocking the Strait of Hormuz to raise the cost of war. Iran absorbed the pain of decapitation and degradation strikes. Dispersal increased the survivability of its missiles and drones for counterattacks, and delegation allowed commanders to operate without constant contact with top leadership, with pre-delegated orders on how to respond.
Survivability strategies also rely on deeply buried production and firing sites. Another aspect that has come to light is Iran's enhanced satellite-based ISR and targeting capability. According to an April 2026 Financial Times investigation, a private Chinese firm, Earth Eye Co, allegedly sold a high-resolution TEE-01B satellite to Iran in late 2024, which was used to monitor US military installations across the Middle East before and after US strikes in early 2026. The Chinese Foreign Ministry denied the report, calling it untrue. What is clear is that Iran's targeting in this war has been more accurate and effective than in June 2025.
What Next
The next round of talks, which many speculated about, is not happening for now. The fact is that Iran, Israel, and the US need to coexist, and the world's energy needs to flow. If both sides believe the rising cost of conflict is unbearable, they will be ready for peace. If only one side feels the cost is unbearable while the other retains the capacity to sustain losses, the stronger will press for surrender. The key question is whether the space Iran has created through its kinetic responses can be translated into diplomatic gains: sanctions relief and a guaranteed end to hostilities. That circles back to what Iran could concede and to what extent.
Where Does India Fit Into This Matrix?
India's stakes in West Asia arise from its geographical proximity to the Gulf nations and the fact that its western maritime boundary runs along the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean region, through which critical trade and energy sea lines of communication pass. This proximity makes instability in the Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a matter of immediate concern. India, along with China, is the most affected by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It also enjoys strategic relations with all principal actors, including the US, Israel, and Iran. It has excellent relations with the Gulf States, with which it has trade ties. A prolonged conflict in West Asia also has direct consequences for remittances from India's large diaspora in the region. India enjoys a measure of trust across the board, and importantly, its own interests are suffering due to the conflict. It possesses sufficient military capability and nuclear deterrence to command respect.
While China remains reluctant to enter the fray directly, it too has deep links with the region. The blockade of the Gulf impacts both India and China, as they are among the largest buyers of crude from this region. In fact, China is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude. In this era of complex and intertwined interdependence, both India and China need to focus on their aligned interests regarding reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
India, holding the reins of BRICS, is in a unique position not only to tell the US that 'this is not an era for war' but also to act in concert with China and pressure both Iran and the US to lift the 'dual blockade' and allow the free flow of energy and goods.
What the ongoing conflicts have demonstrated is the notion of victory. Both Russia and Israel focused on total victory, and the adversary paid the price through humanitarian losses, but winning victory to guarantee total security has been unachievable. In all three ongoing conflicts, overwhelming military power differential has not been the solution. The consequences of a resumption of hostilities are terrifying, both in humanitarian and economic terms. Logic dictates that both sides resolve issues without inflicting more destruction through a face-saving compromise. But we currently inhabit a world that lacks both principles and logic, and the UN is a bystander due to its 'veto rule', which acts as a firewall.
India now needs to seize the moment and, along with China, pressure both the US and Iran to open the Strait. India fits this role perfectly as it is also the leading voice of the Global South and advocates peace, security, and prosperity. Its ties with the US cannot come at the cost of an economic toll on its people. Apart from shaping global governance, what matters in the end is that national interests must override all other issues. Presently, that means obviating the economic fallout from the 'dual blockade' of the Strait of Hormuz. The only question is the method: 'quiet diplomacy' or a 'harder stance'.
