Mamata Banerjee to Contest from Bhowanipore in High-Stakes Bengal Election Battle
The political rivalry between West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari is set to intensify as it shifts from Nandigram to Bhowanipore. The Trinamool Congress announced on Tuesday that Banerjee will re-contest from the Bhowanipore seat, which goes to polls in the second phase on April 29.
Rematch of Political Titans in Home Turfs
This development comes a day after the Bharatiya Janata Party named Suvendu Adhikari as its candidate for both Nandigram and Bhowanipore. In the 2021 elections, Banerjee challenged Adhikari in his home constituency of Nandigram, where she lost by a narrow margin of 1,956 votes. Now, Adhikari will take on Banerjee in her stronghold of Bhowanipore, setting the stage for a dramatic electoral showdown.
When questioned by reporters about the Bhowanipore polls, Chief Minister Banerjee expressed unwavering confidence. "I am confident of my party's victory in Bengal and Bhowanipore will lead the way," she declared. She emphasized her dedication to public service, stating, "I have full faith in people. They know the kind of work I do for them. I work 365 days a year, whether it is during Durga Puja, Eid, or installation of Jain Manstambha. So it is better not to question my commitment. But this fight is not just mine but our party's fight and we will win Bhowanipore by the highest possible margin."
Bhowanipore: A Historical Stronghold for Mamata Banerjee
Bhowanipore holds a special place in Mamata Banerjee's political career, serving as her home and an undefeated bastion. Since 1991, she has been consistently elected from this constituency, first as a Member of Parliament and later as a Member of the Legislative Assembly since 2011. After assuming the role of West Bengal Chief Minister in 2011, she selected Bhowanipore as her assembly segment.
Initially, she did not contest the assembly elections that year but secured a decisive victory in a bypoll, winning by a margin of 54,213 votes. In the 2016 elections, her winning margin narrowed to 25,301 votes as she defeated Congress candidate Deepa Dasmunshi, who was backed by the Left Front. During that election, the BJP garnered only 26,299 votes.
The 2021 elections saw a significant shift, with Banerjee contesting from Nandigram and losing to Adhikari. However, Trinamool Congress retained Bhowanipore as Sovandeb Chattopadhyay won by 28,719 votes against BJP's Rudranil Ghosh. Notably, the BJP's vote share surged to 35.2%, indicating growing influence in the area.
Banerjee later returned to contest the Bhowanipore bypoll in 2021, securing her position as Chief Minister for a third term with a resounding victory margin of 58,835 votes.
Demographic Shifts and Electoral Roll Changes
For the upcoming election, BJP sources indicate plans to leverage Bhowanipore's diverse demographic profile, which includes sizable populations of Gujaratis, Sikhs, Marwaris, and Biharis. However, the constituency will present a different landscape on April 29 due to substantial revisions in the electoral rolls.
The State Information and Records (SIR) has removed 41,068 voters from the original 2-lakh rolls, reducing the electorate by 20% to approximately 1.6 lakh voters. An analysis of the final electoral roll reveals that nearly 56.7% of voters flagged in the 'under adjudication' category are Muslims, despite Muslims comprising only 20% of Bhowanipore's population according to the 2011 Census.
Researchers Souptik Halder, Ashin Chakraborty, and Sabir Ahamed conducted this analysis. Earlier findings showed that Muslims accounted for only 22.7% of voters marked as 'Absent, Shifted, or Dead/Duplicate' (ASDD), with an 'unmapped' share of about 26%, aligning with the constituency's Muslim population. However, this proportion changed dramatically in the 'logical discrepancy' list, where 52% of flagged voters are Muslims.
According to Chakraborty, "Bhowanipore, despite being a mixed community, has a disproportionately high number of Muslims among those under scrutiny. Their share is nearly three times their share in population. In a high-profile seat like this, and given that Muslims are often considered loyal TMC voters, this highlights SIR impact."
Halder further noted, "A booth-wise analysis based on 2021 and 2024 results indicates that if voters 'under adjudication' are unable to vote, win margin for TMC drops significantly, and in some booths the lead even vanishes entirely."
This electoral battle in Bhowanipore is poised to be a critical test for both Trinamool Congress and BJP, with potential implications for West Bengal's political landscape.
