Nationalist Congress Party Confronts Critical Challenges Following Ajit Pawar's Untimely Demise
The sudden and tragic death of Ajit Pawar has created a significant leadership vacuum within the Nationalist Congress Party, leaving the political organization grappling with multiple complex challenges. As the party mourns the loss of its most skilled political manager, it finds itself in a delicate position regarding potential unification with the rival faction while simultaneously maintaining its existing alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Four Critical Questions Confronting the NCP
Following the cremation of "Ajit Dada" in Baramati after the unfortunate plane crash, four pressing questions now dominate the party's immediate future:
- Will the party proceed with merging with Sharad Pawar's rival faction?
- Which political direction will a united NCP take—remaining with the NDA or joining the INDIA bloc?
- Who will succeed Ajit Pawar in the Maharashtra cabinet?
- Who will assume the role of party president?
The Merger Dilemma: Family Unity Versus Political Strategy
Amid ongoing speculation, the Pawar family faces a crucial decision regarding the potential merger of the party that experienced a significant split in 2023. Senior NCP leader and minister in the Fadnavis cabinet, Narhari Zirwal, has indicated that "the two factions are already together" for local body elections, suggesting that remaining divided serves no purpose.
Zirwal emphasized, "Everyone has realized that there is no point in remaining scattered and we have to be together."
Meanwhile, state NCP (Sharad Pawar) president Shashikant Shinde revealed to news agency PTI that Ajit Pawar himself had expressed interest in discussing merger possibilities after municipal and local body polls in Maharashtra. According to Shinde, Ajit had stated during alliance discussions for Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad corporation elections, "Let's sit together and discuss merger after Zilla Parishad and Panchayat Samiti polls."
Shinde further noted, "Ajit Dada was an emotional man who wanted both factions to reunite and keep the Pawar family united. He felt enough was enough. If the family and parties desire reconciliation, we have no objection. Now we must determine whether we can fulfill what became his final wish."
Recent Electoral Performance and Historical Context
This development follows both factions contesting local body polls together in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad. However, the united Nationalist Congress Party experienced substantial setbacks in these elections. In the 165-member Pune Municipal Corporation, the NCP secured only 27 seats while NCP (SP) managed just 3 seats, compared to BJP's dominant tally of 119 seats.
Similarly, in the 102-member Pimpri-Chinchwad civic body, Ajit Pawar's party obtained 37 seats while Sharad Pawar's faction failed to win any, with BJP capturing 84 seats.
The current situation traces back to 2023 when Ajit Pawar, accompanied by several senior leaders, separated from Sharad Pawar and aligned with the BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena. Ajit had expressed concerns about Sharad Pawar continuing to lead the party despite advanced age. Following this move, Ajit was sworn in as deputy chief minister under the new alliance, and the Election Commission subsequently recognized his faction as the legitimate NCP, retaining the party's distinctive 'clock' symbol.
Alliance Decision: Mahayuti or Opposition?
Should the merger materialize, the united NCP must also decide whether to continue within the Mahayuti alliance or shift to the opposition camp. Political analysts suggest that if NCP (SP)'s working president Supriya Sule opts to join the opposition, several NCP MLAs might oppose this move and potentially switch allegiance to Shiv Sena or BJP.
Conversely, if the party chooses to maintain its alliance with BJP and Shiv Sena, those aligned with Sharad Pawar's group in opposition may resist compromising their commitment to Phule-Ambedkar-Shahu ideology.
Succession in Maharashtra Cabinet
NCP leaders are advocating for Sunetra Pawar—Ajit Pawar's wife—to replace him in the Fadnavis cabinet. Narhari Zirwal expressed that public sentiment favors inducting Sunetra, a Rajya Sabha member, into the state ministry. When questioned about the NCP's future following Ajit Pawar's untimely death, Zirwal stated that people desire "vahini" (referring to Sunetra Pawar) to become a cabinet member.
"We will consult our leadership regarding this matter and reach an appropriate decision," affirmed Zirwal, a close confidante of Ajit Pawar.
Given Sunetra's limited political activity despite her Rajya Sabha position, it remains uncertain whether she will secure a position in the Maharashtra cabinet. Furthermore, if appointed, questions arise about whether she would assume the roles of deputy chief minister or finance minister—positions previously held by her husband.
Leadership Succession Within the Party
Should merger negotiations falter, another critical question emerges regarding who will assume the party presidency. While former Union minister and party working president Praful Patel along with state unit chief Sunil Tatkare represent likely contenders, the Pawar family might hesitate to allow leadership outside the family circle.
Another NCP leader and Ajit Pawar confidante, Pramod Hindurao, maintained that Sunetra Pawar should continue her husband's legacy and support party workers. Political analyst Prakash Pawar observed, "Considering the sympathy factor, Sunetra represents a potential option not only to lead the party but also to negotiate merger discussions with the other group, who are also part of her family."
However, any decision regarding merger will undoubtedly prove challenging, requiring careful navigation of complex political dynamics, family considerations, and ideological commitments that have shaped the NCP's trajectory in recent years.
