Sympathy Factor Not a Sure Bet in Maharashtra Bypolls, Observers Warn
As the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) push for unopposed elections in the upcoming bypolls for the Baramati and Rahuri assembly seats, political analysts highlight that the sympathy factor is no longer a reliable path to victory for relatives of deceased sitting MLAs. They emphasize that historical bypoll outcomes demonstrate this shift, with voters increasingly prioritizing candidate competence over emotional appeals.
Historical Bypoll Results Challenge Sympathy Assumptions
In recent years, several bypolls in Maharashtra have defied expectations where sympathy was expected to sway results. For instance, in May 2021, BJP candidate Samadhan Autade defeated NCP's Bhagirath Bhalke in the Pandharpur-Mangalwedha seat, which became vacant after the death of sitting MLA Bharat Bhalke. Despite Bhagirath being the kin, the sympathy factor failed to secure a win.
Similarly, in February 2023, Congress nominee Ravindra Dhangekar triumphed over BJP's Hemant Rasne in the Kasbapeth assembly seat in Pune, a constituency left vacant by the demise of BJP MLA Mukta Tilak. The BJP had relied on sympathy and a three-decade winning streak, but Dhangekar's victory underscored changing voter sentiments.
Close Contests and Unopposed Election Hopes
Some bypolls have seen narrow wins for candidates from deceased MLAs' families, such as the 2022 Kolhapur North seat, where Congress MLA Chandrakant Jadhav's widow, Jayashree, won against BJP's Satyajit Kadam despite Kadam securing 44% of the votes. In other cases, like the October 2021 Deglur (SC) seat in Nanded, Congress's Jitesh Antapurkar won a bypoll after his father's death, contrary to expectations of an unopposed election.
Additionally, in February 2022, the NCP fielded Vitthal alias Nana Kate in the Chinchwad bypoll following BJP MLA Laxman Jagtap's demise. Jagtap's widow, Ashwini, won for the BJP but faced a contest instead of an unopposed victory, highlighting the erosion of consensus politics.
Current Bypoll Context: Baramati and Rahuri Seats
The deadline for filing nominations for the Baramati and Rahuri bypolls is Monday, April 6. The Baramati assembly seat fell vacant after deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar's untimely death in a plane crash on January 28, while the Rahuri seat in Ahilyanagar district became vacant due to BJP sitting MLA Shivajirao Kardile's cardiac arrest on October 17, 2025.
NCP chief and deputy chief minister Sunetra Pawar, widow of Ajit Pawar, is set to contest from Baramati, and the BJP has nominated Shivajirao Kardile's son, Akshay, from Rahuri. Both parties are banking on sympathy and attempting to persuade opposition parties not to field candidates to ensure unopposed elections.
Opposition Challenges and Voter Awareness
However, the NCP (SP) plans to contest in Rahuri, and Congress has announced it will field a candidate against Sunetra Pawar in Baramati. If these opposition parties proceed, voting will be inevitable, and observers caution that sympathy cannot guarantee victory. Historically, opposition parties would often agree not to contest against kin of deceased MLAs, as seen in cases like NCP's RR Patil in 2015 or Congress's Patangrao Kadam in 2018, but this trend is fading.
Ravindra Bhanage, a professor of political science at Shivaji University in Kolhapur, commented, "The sympathy factor is an easy one to bank on to win. However, in recent years, voters have become more aware and are not easily swayed by sympathy. They evaluate candidates based on their ability to address concerns for the remainder of the assembly tenure. People also increasingly dislike tickets given to family members of deceased MLAs unless the candidate is competent."
Bhanage added that Sunetra Pawar has a strong position even in a contested election due to her long-standing work in Baramati and her role as deputy chief minister. In Rahuri, the NCP (SP) is seeking to reclaim the seat lost to the BJP in 2024, further complicating the sympathy-driven strategy.
