MDMK Member of Parliament Vaiko has expressed skepticism regarding the reliability of exit polls for the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, highlighting that the predictions vary significantly and the actual outcome will only be known when the results are officially announced.
Speaking to ANI, Vaiko noted that different surveys present contrasting outcomes. Some projections indicate a victory for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, while others favor the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. He stated, "Exit polls do not follow a consistent line. Four exit polls suggest that the DMK will form the government, while one exit poll opinion is in favor of the AIADMK forming the government. Another opinion poll indicates that Vijay's TVK will come to power. There are different opinions. The results of the exit polls differ from one another. We have to wait and see."
Vaiko also suggested that the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by actor-turned-politician Vijay, could emerge as a significant force in the state's politics. He remarked, "TVK will be a force to be reckoned with, and it may produce surprises. When the results are declared, there is a possibility that there is a swing among students and first-time voters in favor of TVK." Emphasizing the enduring influence of the Dravidian movement, Vaiko said it would remain a permanent feature of Tamil Nadu's political landscape, regardless of electoral outcomes. He rejected the idea that the Bharatiya Janata Party could weaken it, adding, "The Dravidian movement has been built on sacrifice and suffering. Thousands have sacrificed their entire lives for the upbringing of the Dravidian movement. This will be a permanent force in the Dravidian soil, whether they win the elections or not. It will be a permanent force. The BJP, as they imagine, could not shake the foundations of the Dravidian movement."
Commenting on elections in other states, Vaiko said the BJP was attempting to expand its presence but faced different challenges. He explained, "They (the BJP) are trying to penetrate. In Kerala, it will be very difficult. They cannot. But in West Bengal, the case may be a different one." He added that engaging younger voters would be crucial going forward, stating, "We have to fight the BJP and Hindutva menace. We are dedicated to that cause. We will fight it out, and we have to go very deep, make inroads into the younger force that is not so happening now. We should penetrate, we should enter a younger force, a student force. That is the need of the Dravidian movement."
What exit polls predict
Most projections, however, place Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam in the 10–24 seat range, marking a significant electoral debut for the party led by actor-turned-politician Vijay. According to several pollsters, the party is likely to emerge as a spoiler rather than a main contender. Polling agencies such as P-Marq and Matrize have projected 10–12 seats for TVK, while Peoples Pulse estimates a stronger 18–24 seats, indicating traction among urban and younger voters. In such a scenario, analysts suggest the party could split anti-incumbent votes, indirectly aiding the DMK. However, one projection stands out. Axis MyIndia has forecast a dramatic surge, giving TVK between 98 and 120 seats — numbers that, if reflected in the results on May 4, could rapidly elevate Vijay to the center of Tamil Nadu politics.
