Gukesh's Shadow Looms as Candidates Chess Begins in Cyprus
Two years ago, when Dommaraju Gukesh stunned the chess world by storming into the Candidates tournament in Toronto, it was hailed as a miraculous breakthrough. His subsequent victory over Ding Liren in Singapore, making him the youngest-ever World Champion, transformed that miracle into a seismic shift in the global chess landscape. Yet, as the marathon to find his next challenger commences this Saturday in Cyprus, a curious silence envelops the Indian camp, despite high hopes.
The American Wall: Nakamura and Caruana Lead the Favorites
Despite Gukesh's recent admission that he would welcome an all-Indian matchup against R Praggnanandhaa for the title, pre-tournament analysis suggests Indians are not the leading favorites in either the open or women's categories. The primary reason lies in the mathematical dominance of the American duo: World No. 2 Hikaru Nakamura and World No. 3 Fabiano Caruana.
In an era dominated by teenage phenoms, these veterans have recalibrated their strategies. Nakamura, at 38, remains a freak of nature, maintaining a rating above 2800 while balancing a full-time streaming career. "One cannot rule out Nakamura's best chances," veteran Grandmaster Pravin Thipsay told TimesofIndia.com. "He is the only player keeping above 2800 all these years. Nakamura is a serious contender mainly because of his cleverness in specific opening preparations against specific players."
Caruana, 33, presents a different kind of hurdle with his "unbeatable" factor. "He is very solid," Thipsay noted. "He doesn't necessarily wish to win in the opening itself, but he's always on solid ground. It's possible Caruana ends up unbeaten in the event. The only problem he faces is being able to score heavily enough."
The Praggnanandhaa Puzzle: A Need for Tactical Bravery
While the world has eagerly awaited Praggnanandhaa to take the final leap, recent months have seen a period of consolidation rather than conquest. After a blistering run in the first half of 2025, the Chennai prodigy found the competition tougher at the top during the latter half, and his start to 2026 has lacked positivity.
"Praggnanandhaa had very good years, but recently, he has not been really good," Thipsay observed. To win the Candidates, Pragg must revert to his roots as a cold-blooded attacker. "He must concentrate on getting the initiative with the white pieces. His strength is mainly attack against the enemy king... he's good at tactics and combinations," the veteran GM added.
The challenge for the 20-year-old Indian is tactical bravery. In a field that includes Wei Yi and the unpredictable Javokhir Sindarov, who Thipsay warns "may cause upsets but has a habit of making simple mistakes", Praggnanandhaa cannot afford to play for safe draws if he aims to set up that dream all-Indian World Championship match.
The Women's Field: Divya Deshmukh's Psychological Edge
If the open section feels like an uphill climb, the Women's Candidates offers a brighter silver lining. With the withdrawal of legendary Koneru Humpy due to safety concerns in West Asia, the spotlight has shifted to 20-year-old World Cup winner Divya Deshmukh and 24-year-old Vaishali Rameshbabu, winner of the 2025 Women's Grand Swiss.
Despite being rated lower than top seed Zhu Jiner, Divya carries a psychological edge that most female players lack, as she regularly competes in the open circuit dominated by men. "The wisdom Divya shows in playing men's events has made her very strong against the best defence," Thipsay remarked. "When you're playing a strong field, you should be able to tackle good defence. In the past, no Indian except Humpy had ever beaten Chinese players in a match, but 2025 was different. Divya and Humpy defeated four Chinese players among themselves."
Thipsay believes the title is a straight shootout: "I would say the top position is expecting to go to either Zhu Jiner or Divya. Vaishali has an outside chance, but probably only for second or third," he added.
The Stakes: A Global Tug-of-War or Indian Dominance?
As the clocks start on Saturday, the narrative is clear. The "Gukesh effect" has made the world wary of Indian prodigies, but it has also forced the old guard to sharpen their steel. For Nakamura and Caruana, this is likely their final realistic shot at a World Championship match before the door is bolted shut by the next generation.
For India, the task is to prove that Gukesh wasn't a standalone miracle, but the first of many. Whether Praggnanandhaa can find his attacking initiative or Divya can dismantle the Chinese wall, the next three weeks in Cyprus will decide if the World Championship remains an internal Indian affair or evolves into a global tug-of-war.
