NEW DELHI: With 11 games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2025, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Gujarat Titans (GT) can only miss out through net run rate, while Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) have almost secured their spot. Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) would need a dramatic downturn to miss the playoffs. Rajasthan Royals (RR) have a better than even chance, and Punjab Kings (PBKS) have roughly a 50% probability of finishing among the top four on points, even if tied. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) saw their chances plummet after Friday's loss, while Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Delhi Capitals (DC) have extremely slim hopes. With 2,048 possible result combinations remaining, nothing is certain for any of the eight teams still in the race.
Probability Breakdown for Each Team
Here is a detailed look at the probabilities for each team based on the remaining matches:
Gujarat Titans (GT)
GT are guaranteed to finish within the top four in terms of points, though they could be tied with up to four other teams. Their chance of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly, is an impressive 90.2%.
Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB)
RCB have a 99.4% chance of finishing among the top four by points and an 83.4% chance of being among the top two.
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH)
SRH's chances of finishing in the top four by points stand at 82.8%, with a 38.9% chance of being among the top two.
Punjab Kings (PBKS)
PBKS have a 50.3% chance of ending up among the top four on points, but only a 9.8% chance of finishing among the top two.
Chennai Super Kings (CSK)
CSK's chances of being among the top four on points have nosedived to 35.9% following Friday's loss, with just an 11.1% chance of ending up among the top two.
Rajasthan Royals (RR)
RR's chances of getting into the top four slots on points have improved to 60.4%, and they have a 19.9% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots.
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR)
KKR now have a mere 5.1% chance of making the last four, and they can no longer even tie for the top two slots.
Delhi Capitals (DC)
DC's hopes of making the playoffs are at a measly 6.1%. Like KKR, they are no longer in contention for the top two slots.
How the Probabilities Are Calculated
There are 2,048 possible combinations of results remaining with 11 games to go. For each team, the number of combinations where they finish among the top four (singly or tied) is counted, as well as those where they are in the top two (singly or jointly). For instance, GT finish in the top four on points in all 2,048 possible combinations, translating to a 100% chance of being among the top four purely on points. However, since some combinations involve ties, they are not yet guaranteed to qualify.
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