With only 10 games remaining in the league stage of the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025, the race for the playoffs has intensified. Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already been eliminated from contention. Gujarat Titans (GT) can only miss out through a net run rate tiebreaker, while Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) have almost secured their spot. Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) would need a significant downturn to miss the playoffs. Rajasthan Royals (RR) have a better than even chance, and Punjab Kings (PBKS) have roughly a 50-50 chance of finishing among the top four in terms of points, even if tied. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) saw their chances diminish after Friday's loss, while Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Delhi Capitals (DC) have very slim hopes. With 1,024 possible combinations of results, nothing is certain for the eight remaining teams.
Probabilities for Each Team
Despite their loss on Saturday, GT are assured of finishing within the top four in terms of points (though they could be tied with up to four other teams). Their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly, remain high at 80.5%.
RCB have a 99.6% chance of finishing among the top four by points and an 86.3% chance of being among the top two.
SRH's chances of finishing in the top four by points are at 82%, with a 47.3% chance of being among the top two.
RR's chances of getting into the top four slots on points have improved to 59.1%, and they have a 26.6% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots.
PBKS' chances of ending up among the top four on points are at 50.2%, but they have only a 14.1% chance of finishing among the top two.
CSK's chances of being among the top four on points are now at 34.8%, and they have just a 19.5% chance of ending up among the top two.
The win on Saturday improved KKR's chances of making the last four, but only to 10%, and they can no longer even tie for the top two slots.
DC's hopes of making the playoffs are at a measly 6.1%. Like KKR, they are no longer in contention for the top two slots.
How the Probabilities Are Calculated
There are 1,024 possible combinations of results remaining with 10 games to go. For each team, we examined how many of these combinations result in them being among the top four, either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations place each team in the top two, either singly or jointly. For instance, GT finish in the top four on points in all 1,024 possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 100% chance of being among the top four purely on points. However, since some of these involve ties, they are not yet guaranteed to qualify.
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