Three playoff spots have already been secured by Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans, and Sunrisers Hyderabad. However, the battle for the final berth remains intense with six league matches still to be played. While Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants have been eliminated, five teams are mathematically alive: Rajasthan Royals, Punjab Kings, Chennai Super Kings, Delhi Capitals, and Kolkata Knight Riders. Here is what each team needs to do to qualify.
Rajasthan Royals: One Win Should Suffice
Rajasthan Royals have positioned themselves strongly, accumulating 14 points from 13 matches. They currently occupy fourth place with a slightly positive net run rate and hold the clearest advantage among the contenders for the last playoff spot.
Remaining fixture: vs Mumbai Indians (Away)
The equation is straightforward for RR. A victory against MI will take them to 16 points, securing the final playoff berth outright. The timing also favors RR. By the time they face MI on the afternoon of May 24, they will already know the results of KKR vs MI, GT vs CSK, SRH vs RCB, and LSG vs PBKS. This means RR could enter Wankhede Stadium with a clear target in mind.
Ideal scenario for RR:
- KKR lose to MI
- CSK lose to GT
- PBKS lose to LSG
If all three results occur, RR will qualify even before taking the field against MI. However, RR would want to avoid a crowded tie on 14 points involving DC and CSK. Their net run rate is only marginally positive, so a heavy defeat to MI could still complicate matters if multiple teams finish level. Nonetheless, among all teams still alive, RR remain in the best position because they control their own destiny.
Punjab Kings: Must Beat LSG and Hope for Favorable Results
Punjab Kings have suffered a slump at the wrong time, losing five consecutive matches, but they are still mathematically alive.
Remaining fixture: vs Lucknow Super Giants (Away)
A win over LSG would take PBKS to 15 points. That total might still be enough for fourth place, but only if other results fall in their favor. The most important match for PBKS before they play is KKR vs MI. If KKR lose that game, one direct challenger drops out. PBKS would also want GT to beat CSK because a CSK win would move them to 14 points, adding pressure on Shreyas Iyer's side.
Ideal scenario for PBKS:
- KKR lose to MI
- CSK lose to GT
- RR lose to MI
- DC lose to KKR
However, if RR defeat MI on Saturday, the PBKS vs LSG result becomes irrelevant as RR would reach 16 points and lock in the final playoff spot.
Chennai Super Kings: Need Two Wins and Considerable Help
CSK are still mathematically alive, but they may have left themselves too much to accomplish earlier in the season.
Remaining fixture: vs Gujarat Titans (Away)
A win over GT would take CSK to 14 points. But even then, qualification is unlikely unless several other results go their way. First, CSK need KKR to lose to MI. If KKR win both their remaining games, they can reach 15 points and move ahead. CSK would also want PBKS to lose to LSG, as PBKS could otherwise reach 15 points as well. Most importantly, CSK need RR to lose to MI. If RR win and move to 16 points, the last playoff spot is effectively gone.
Ideal scenario for CSK:
- Beat GT convincingly to improve net run rate
- KKR lose at least one game
- PBKS lose to LSG
- RR lose to MI
- DC lose to KKR
Even then, CSK could end up tied on 14 points with RR, making net run rate decisive. The challenge for CSK is that their net run rate is currently slightly negative. If qualification comes down to a multi-team tie at 14 points, they may need a big-margin win over GT. Their chances are slim but not impossible.
Delhi Capitals: One Win Needed, but Even That May Not Be Enough
Delhi Capitals have one match remaining, giving them a route to 14 points. However, their poor net run rate leaves little room for error.
Remaining fixture: vs Kolkata Knight Riders (Away)
The biggest issue for DC is their net run rate of -0.871, by far the worst among the contenders. A tie on points would be dangerous.
Ideal scenario for DC:
- KKR lose to MI
- RR lose to MI
- PBKS lose to LSG
- DC beat KKR by a big margin
In this scenario, the final league game between KKR and DC effectively becomes a knockout. The loser is out, while the winner moves ahead.
Kolkata Knight Riders: Must Win Both and Still Depend on Others
KKR probably have the toughest route among the realistic contenders.
Remaining fixtures: vs Mumbai Indians (Home), vs Delhi Capitals (Home)
KKR are on 11 points from 12 matches. Winning both games would take them to 15 points, keeping them alive.
Ideal scenario for KKR:
- Beat MI
- Beat DC
- GT beat CSK
- LSG beat PBKS
- RR lose to MI
If all those results happen, KKR can sneak through with 15 points. However, even after winning both games, they may still be vulnerable if RR reach 16 points or PBKS reach 15 with a better net run rate. Their net run rate is also only slightly negative, so they cannot afford narrow wins. A dominant win over MI could significantly improve their position before the final-day clash with DC. The positive for KKR is scheduling. They play once before RR face MI, which means they can keep applying pressure and force RR into a must-win situation.
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