The race for the final IPL 2026 playoff spot has narrowed to four teams after Gujarat Titans crushed Chennai Super Kings by 89 runs in Ahmedabad, officially eliminating CSK from contention and almost securing a top-two finish for themselves. Three teams—Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans, and Sunrisers Hyderabad—have already confirmed playoff berths. The fight for the last remaining spot is now between Rajasthan Royals, Punjab Kings, Kolkata Knight Riders, and Delhi Capitals.
GT Almost Lock in Top-Two Finish, RCB and SRH Battle for Remaining Spot
GT’s emphatic victory took them to 18 points with a net run rate (NRR) of +0.695, but it was still not enough to overtake table-toppers RCB’s NRR. RCB face SRH today in their final league game and need only to avoid a massive defeat to maintain their top spot. A win would take them to 20 points and secure a place in Qualifier 1. However, SRH have everything to play for despite already qualifying. To leapfrog GT and secure a top-two finish, they would need an extraordinary margin of victory against RCB. If they bat first, they will likely need to win by around 87–89 runs, depending on RCB’s first innings total (between 180 and 240). If chasing, they may need to hunt down targets in under 12 overs.
RR Frontrunner for Final Playoff Spot
Rajasthan Royals remain favourites to grab the final playoff berth. Currently on 14 points with one game remaining against eliminated Mumbai Indians on Sunday, RR know a victory at Wankhede would seal qualification on 16 points, because none of the remaining contenders can reach that total. Their position is strengthened by the schedule. By the time RR take the field against MI on Sunday afternoon, they will already know the outcomes of LSG vs PBKS, with PBKS being their closest competitor for the final spot. The ideal scenario for RR is straightforward: beat MI, and hope PBKS lose to LSG and DC beat KKR. The danger for RR is their modest NRR of +0.083. A heavy defeat to MI combined with wins for PBKS or KKR could still complicate matters. In that scenario, RR would be stuck at 14 points, with PBKS and KKR moving to 15, and superior NRR among the two teams deciding the final playoff spot. RR’s loss would benefit both KKR and DC, as they would know exactly what they need to do to claim the final spot in the last league fixture of IPL 2026.
PBKS Need to Beat LSG and Hope RR Stumble
Punjab Kings are still alive despite five straight defeats. A win over already-eliminated LSG would take PBKS to 15 points, a total that could yet be enough for fourth place. That would make Sunday’s two fixtures virtual knockouts for both RR and KKR. However, PBKS’ biggest hope is MI upsetting RR. If RR win and move to 16, PBKS can no longer finish above them. If PBKS win and RR lose, then Punjab Kings will closely watch KKR vs DC. Since those two teams face each other directly, a KKR win would complicate matters for PBKS, but a win for DC would mean PBKS are through. PBKS do at least possess a healthy NRR advantage over RR and KKR, meaning ties on points could still favour them. Their equation: beat LSG, hope RR lose to MI, and hope DC beat KKR.
KKR Face Virtual Knockout Against DC
Kolkata Knight Riders kept themselves alive by beating MI earlier in the week and now sit on 13 points with one game remaining. Their final league clash against Delhi Capitals has effectively become a knockout game. A win takes KKR to 15 points and keeps them alive; a defeat eliminates them. But even if KKR beat DC, they still need RR to lose against MI. If RR win and reach 16, KKR cannot catch them. KKR would also prefer PBKS to lose against LSG because PBKS reaching 15 would likely bring NRR into the picture. The positive for KKR is that their NRR has finally turned positive at +0.011 after the MI victory, giving them at least a fighting chance in a tie on points. Their equation: hope PBKS lose to LSG, hope RR lose to MI, and beat DC.
DC Hanging by a Thread
Delhi Capitals remain mathematically alive but probably have the toughest task. Their NRR of -0.871 is comfortably the worst among the contenders, meaning ties on points are unlikely to help them. To stay alive, DC must beat KKR in the final league game, which would take them to 14 points. But even then, they would still need RR to lose to MI and PBKS to lose to LSG. Even under that scenario, DC could still require a major NRR swing depending on margins. In reality, DC likely need a big win over KKR, RR to lose heavily, and PBKS to lose. Anything short of that probably ends their campaign.
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