With six games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2026, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), Gujarat Titans (GT), and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) have secured their spots in the playoffs. Among the remaining teams, Rajasthan Royals (RR) are best positioned, followed by Punjab Kings (PBKS). Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), Delhi Capitals (DC), and Chennai Super Kings (CSK) are still mathematically in the race but face slim chances.
There are now 64 possible combinations of results, meaning nothing is certain for any of the five teams still vying for the remaining playoff berths. The probabilities for each team are as follows:
Probabilities for Each Team
Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB)
RCB are guaranteed to qualify and will at least finish tied for first place in points. Their worst-case scenario is a three-way tie for the top spot with GT and SRH.
Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) and Gujarat Titans (GT)
Both SRH and GT have also qualified. For each, the chances of finishing at least tied for second place are a healthy 75%.
Rajasthan Royals (RR)
Tuesday's win has improved RR's chances of ending up among the top four on points to 68.8%. They could still end up in a three-way tie for second place with SRH and GT, with a 12.5% probability of that scenario.
Punjab Kings (PBKS)
PBKS can at best finish sole fourth (18.8% chance) or tie for fourth place with KKR (6.3% chance).
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR)
KKR's chances of making the top four singly or jointly are now at 12.5%. If they do tie for the last playoff slot, it will be with PBKS.
Delhi Capitals (DC)
DC's chances of making the top four on points are also 12.5%. However, if they achieve that, it will be a tie with either RR or KKR and CSK.
Chennai Super Kings (CSK)
CSK's best-case scenario is tied fourth with RR or KKR and DC, and even that is only a 9.4% chance.
Methodology
To arrive at these probabilities, we analyzed all 64 possible combinations of match outcomes from the remaining six games. For each team, we counted how many of these combinations result in them being among the top four, either singly or tied. We also examined how many combinations put each team in the top two, singly or jointly. For instance, RCB finishes at number one on points in all 64 possible combinations, sometimes as sole leaders and other times as joint leaders.
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