As we step into 2026, a period marked by the convulsions of 2025 dominated by US President Donald Trump's disruptive policies, a critical question emerges for business leaders: has the whirlwind of AI and Artificial Generative Intelligence (AGI) innovation fundamentally altered the bedrock of corporate success? According to Vikram S Mehta, Chairman of the CSEP Research Foundation, the answer is a resounding no.
The Unbroken Thread of Four Industrial Revolutions
Reflecting on the arc of modern industry, Mehta revisits the framework established by World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab. The journey began with the First Industrial Revolution in 1776, powered by the steam engine. A century later, the Second Revolution was triggered by electricity, the combustion engine, and the assembly line. The Third Revolution, starting in the 1970s, was defined by the internet, IT, and robotics.
Today, we are in the midst of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterized since around 2010 by AI, machine learning, big data, and quantum computing. While each revolution introduced transformative new tools, Mehta contends they did not rewrite the fundamental principles that drive business growth and profitability. These principles, he identifies, are fourfold and enduring.
The Four Immutable Pillars of Business Success
1. Relentless Cost Management
The basic economic law that prices gravitate towards marginal cost remains supreme. Companies with high average costs face intense pressure on returns, especially when leveraged. Historical success stories underscore this principle. Henry Ford put "America on Wheels" with the Model T due to a laser focus on cost efficiency. Similarly, China's rise as a global manufacturing hub stems from combining scale with operational efficiency to achieve the world's lowest unit costs. Neglecting cost control, Mehta warns, leaves any business vulnerable to economic cycles.
2. Control Over Supply Chain and Inputs
Access to competitively priced factors of production—land, capital, power, and logistics—has always been a decisive advantage. The 19th-century titans like Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller secured this through monopolistic control. In the modern context, China's government provided its manufacturers with this critical affordable infrastructure, giving them a formidable head start.
In contrast, Mehta points to India, where companies struggle with land acquisition, shallow capital markets, high utility costs, and inadequate transport networks. This hampers even world-class Indian firms in global competition. Therefore, supply chain competitiveness and resilience are non-negotiable, past, present, and future.
3. Strategic Regulatory Alignment
The relationship between business and state power has oscillated, from the breakup of Standard Oil in 1911 to the deregulation ethos of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, and back to today's vogue for industrial policy. Through all these shifts, one constant remains: sustained corporate growth requires the implicit, if not explicit, support of the state. Technological innovation has not granted businesses the power to sidestep regulators. Regulatory alignment is a permanent precondition for success.
The Irreplaceable Role of Human Judgment
This fourth pillar is perhaps the most crucial in the age of AI. Mehta poses a series of rhetorical questions: Would templated analysis have led James Watt to steam power? Would Henry Ford have raised wages to create demand if bound by linear logic? Did Steve Jobs prioritize design based on algorithmic signals? Is China's renewable energy dominance due only to resources or to leaders defying conventional wisdom?
The answer is clear. These transformative, often counter-intuitive, decisions bore the imprint of subjective intuition, insight, and leadership. Mehta acknowledges that AGI will likely surpass human cognitive intelligence in time. However, he issues a stark forewarning: if this leads to the supplanting or subversion of human judgment, the very pillar supporting four industrial revolutions will be knocked down.
Echoing the philosopher Friedrich Hegel—that we often fail to learn from history—Mehta urges business leaders navigating rapid change to internalize this lesson. The tools may evolve, but the principles of cost, supply chain, regulation, and, above all, human wisdom, remain the timeless architects of enduring success.
