A new global survey of chief executive officers suggests that older workers may not be disproportionately affected by job cuts as companies adopt artificial intelligence (AI). According to the survey by Oliver Wyman, more than 40% of CEOs plan to cut junior roles over the next one to two years and shift their workforce composition toward mid-level or senior positions. Only 17% plan to make junior roles a bigger part of the mix. These numbers are essentially flipped from just a year ago.
Impact on Junior Workers
John Romeo, who leads the Oliver Wyman Forum, the consulting firm’s research arm, stated, “I think the junior level is definitely finding it harder now to enter the workforce. It’s those mid- and senior-level employees that CEOs are now looking at to drive productivity.” This shift is driven by the types of tasks that AI agents can perform, such as writing code at the level of a junior developer or evaluating sales leads. However, labour experts note that AI agents cannot make judgment calls using the insight that comes from on-the-job experience in many fields.
Value of Experience
Consultant and lecturer Ravin Jesuthasan, who has written on the future of work, explained, “Companies are saying, ‘I need someone who’s actually done this before because her experience, her wisdom, her critical thinking and the fact that she solved these problems makes her much more valuable.’” The Oliver Wyman survey results build on findings from a Harvard University study showing that firms adopting generative AI have significantly reduced junior-level positions while keeping senior employment largely stable.
Risks of Foregoing Younger Talent
Helen Leis, global head of leadership at Oliver Wyman, warned that foregoing younger talent now in favor of AI agents comes with significant risks. It may leave firms with a shortage of experienced workers in the future. Even if AI is tipping the scales toward older workers, it is no guarantee of job security. Teresa Ghilarducci, a labour economist at the New School, noted, “Firms’ commitment to workers is weaker and weaker.”
This trend highlights a fundamental shift in the workforce, where experience is increasingly valued over entry-level skills, but companies must balance immediate productivity gains with long-term talent development.
