A recent study by farm scientists from an ICAR institution has revealed that El Niño years have historically led to significant reductions in the output of key kharif crops, including paddy and maize. The research, led by Subash N Pillai at the ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research, indicates that during El Niño years, paddy yields declined by more than 10% in 77 districts across various states, while maize suffered similar losses in 65 districts.
Impact on Major Crops
The study, published in the Climate Services journal by Elsevier in 2023, analyzed three El Niño years: 2002, 2004, and 2009. It found that the most significant impact on paddy, the most popular kharif crop, was observed in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Besides paddy and maize, yields of sorghum and pearl millets also declined by over 10% in 36 districts each during these El Niño years.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of ocean surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It is associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India, leading to spatial and temporal variability in precipitation. The study highlights that this variability causes substantial reductions in the productivity of major kharif crops across several districts.
Vulnerable Districts and Need for Planning
The research identified many highly vulnerable districts where crop yields declined by more than 10% during recent El Niño years. Pillai emphasized the need for climate-resilient agricultural planning at the district level. He stated, "As El Niño conditions are likely to prevail this year, policymakers should strengthen contingency planning through promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties, weather-based agro-advisory services, efficient water management, and location-specific adaptation strategies to minimize agricultural losses and safeguard farmers' livelihoods."
Call to Action
The study provides crucial insights for policymakers and stakeholders to prepare short- and long-term contingency plans. By adopting climate-resilient practices and technologies, India can mitigate the adverse effects of El Niño on agriculture. The findings underscore the importance of district-level planning to address the specific vulnerabilities of different regions.
