Gold prices are likely to see limited upside due to gains in crude oil prices, according to Praveen Singh, Head of Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan. The yellow metal came under renewed selling pressure on Monday as oil prices surged again following stalled US-Iran talks.
Gold Performance
Spot gold was trading at $4,678, down 0.75% for the day at the time of writing. In the week ending April 24, gold posted a weekly loss of 2.5% at $4,710, marking its first weekly decline in five weeks.
Geopolitical Factors and Oil
The much-anticipated US-Iran meeting scheduled for the weekend in Pakistan did not take place. On Monday, Iran presented a new proposal to the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, which includes postponing nuclear negotiations. The proposal suggests nuclear talks after the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted. The White House has not responded positively, stating it will only agree to a deal that prioritizes American interests.
Daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped to near zero, compared to about 135 before the conflict began on February 28. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy warned that the oil market faces a guaranteed supply loss of around one billion barrels, as reviving flows after the strait reopens will take time.
Economic Data Roundup
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity fell by 2.3% in April, versus an estimated increase of 0.90%. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment final reading for April came in at 49.8 (near record lows), compared to the estimate of 48.50. One-year inflation expectations stood at 4.7% (estimate 4.7%), while ten-year inflation expectations were 3.5%, hotter than the estimated 3.4%.
China's fiscal spending in March fell 2.5% year-on-year, even as China's Q1 economic growth expanded 5% from a year ago, the fastest in three quarters.
Dollar Index and Yields
The Dollar Index declined on April 27 amid hopes for US-Iran talks. At the time of writing, the index was around 98.39, down 0.15% for the day. Two-year US yields at 3.80% were up by 2 basis points, while 10-year yields at 4.33% were up by 3 basis points.
In the week ending April 24, the Dollar Index rose 0.50% for the week, while 2-year US yields at 3.78% were up 2% and 10-year yields at 4.31% were up nearly 1.5%.
CFTC Positioning
Money managers reduced their bullish gold bets by 3,352 net-long positions to 95,498 in the week ending April 21. Long-only positions fell by 2,730 lots to 125,908, while short-only positions increased by 622 lots to 30,410, the highest in almost six months.
India's Gold Imports Fall
India's imports fell to $59.59 billion in March 2026, down from $63.71 billion the previous month and 6.5% lower year-on-year. According to NDTV profit, India's gold imports dropped more than 50% year-on-year from 50.46 tons in March 2025 to an estimated 22–24 tonnes in March 2026, making it the third-lowest March level in two decades. Factors include front-loaded buying on duty hike expectations, subdued retail demand, and tighter liquidity.
ETF Holdings
As of April 24, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 99 million ounces, up by 0.05 million ounces year-to-date but down by 1.92 million ounces since the start of the Iran war on February 28.
Upcoming Data and Events
Key US data in the near term include ADP weekly employment change (April 28), Conference Board consumer confidence (April 28), real personal spending (April 30), PCE Price Index (April 30), Q1 annualized GDP (April 30), and ISM manufacturing Index (May 1). China's PMIs and the Eurozone's April CPI will be released on April 30.
Apart from US-Iran talks, investors will focus on the FOMC monetary decision on April 29. The central bank is expected to signal a cautious stance due to rising fuel costs and inflation from the Iran war. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will announce their monetary policies on April 30, with expectations of steady rates but increased probability of rate hikes by year-end due to inflation risks. The Bank of Japan's decision on April 28 is widely expected to keep the benchmark rate steady at 0.75%.
According to overnight implied rates, investors expect the Bank of Japan, ECB, and BoE to hike rates 1.8, 2.53, and 2.30 times respectively by year-end, while the Fed is expected to deliver 0.33 rate cuts.
Gold Price Outlook
Spot gold is expected to face continued downside pressure unless oil prices decline, so US-Iran talk news flow should be closely monitored. The US FOMC may lean hawkish in its April 29 decision. The yellow metal may test support at $4,600 in the short term, with interim support at $4,667 and next major support at $4,447. Resistance is at $4,745/$4,833.
