Exactly twenty-five years ago, a catastrophic 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck Gujarat and surrounding regions, resulting in thousands of fatalities and widespread devastation. Today, researchers are developing technology that could provide life-saving warnings for future seismic events.
Could Seconds of Warning Save Hundreds of Lives?
Imagine if cities like Ahmedabad and Surat received advance alerts about incoming earthquake surface waves, even if those warnings came just seconds before impact. Those crucial moments could enable people to evacuate buildings or take protective cover, potentially preventing numerous casualties.
Dr. Sumer Chopra, former director general of the Institute of Seismological Research (ISR) in Gandhinagar and current professor at IIT Roorkee, explains: "A timely alert can save hundreds of lives, especially if people are given warning to evacuate a building or take shelter."
Developing Gujarat's Second Earthquake Early Warning System
The Institute of Seismological Research, established in 2003, has been meticulously mapping Gujarat's seismic activity for over two decades. The organization currently operates 211 seismic sensors across the state, which is more than the combined total of 180 sensors deployed throughout the rest of India.
These sensors have recorded thousands of tremors over the years, creating a rich database that forms the foundation for an earthquake early warning system (EWS). Dr. Chopra reveals: "An early warning system is in the works at ISR, based on a rich cache of data collected over the past two decades, and is likely to be completed in the next couple of years."
This will be India's second such system, following a pilot program being tested by IIT Roorkee researchers in Uttarakhand.
How the AI-Powered System Will Work
The planned early warning system will leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies to automate earthquake detection and alert processes. When seismic activity occurs, sensors will immediately pinpoint the source, while the AI-ML system calculates:
- The approximate time earthquake waves will reach major population centers
- The direction of wave propagation
- Potential impact on critical infrastructure like power plants
Dr. Chopra elaborates: "Thus, if an earthquake occurs in Kutch, depending on the nature of the event, it may take about 60-odd seconds for the damaging waves to reach Ahmedabad. The EWS will be automated based on artificial intelligence and machine learning."
Gujarat's Unique Seismic Challenges
Research has identified several factors that make Gujarat particularly vulnerable to earthquake damage:
- Approximately 44% of Gujarat's land area consists of quaternary sediments
- Another 12% contains Rann sediments
- These soft soil types can significantly amplify earthquake waves
Researchers have already developed a seismic hazard map for Gujarat based on:
- Major geological faults in the region
- Local geography and soil composition
- Historical earthquake patterns
The Path Forward for Earthquake Safety
Developing this sophisticated warning system requires specialized software and extensive training with Gujarat-specific seismic data. Dr. Chopra notes: "No such readymade AI-based system is available for EWS, and we need to develop software and train the AI-ML-based system with earthquakes of the Gujarat region, and this takes time."
Despite the technical challenges, the potential benefits are substantial. The integration of advanced technology could dramatically improve earthquake preparedness, protecting both human lives and critical infrastructure across Gujarat's urban centers.
As Dr. Chopra emphasizes: "The use of technology will help save lives and infrastructure." With continued research and development, Gujarat may soon have a powerful tool to mitigate the devastating impacts of future earthquakes.
