Weather Apps Struggle in Complex Winter Storms, Human Forecasters Crucial
Smartphone weather applications that deliver forecasts through eye-catching numbers and vibrant icons might be convenient during mild weather conditions. However, meteorologists strongly advise relying on human expertise during multifaceted and hazardous winter storms, such as the one currently sweeping across the United States.
Why Apps Fall Short in Dangerous Weather
The ongoing multistate storm, characterized by heavy snowfall, treacherous ice, and subzero temperatures, highlights the limitations of automated weather apps. According to meteorologists interviewed by The Associated Press, these apps often fail to capture the nuances of rapidly changing data, where even a few miles can determine whether precipitation falls as snow, sleet, or dangerous freezing rain.
Marshall Shepherd, a University of Georgia meteorology professor and past president of the American Meteorological Society, explained, "Weather apps are really bad at storms that have multiple types of precipitation, and it really makes messaging hard. Apps don’t understand the details of why snow, sleet, or freezing rain happens."
The Importance of Human Interpretation
Experts like Jason Furtado, a meteorology professor at the University of Oklahoma, stress that human forecasters are indispensable during extreme weather events. They provide localized insights that apps cannot replicate.
"For extreme weather events, it is especially important to know there are human forecasters interpreting the data and making the best localized forecasts for your area," Furtado said. "Unfortunately, many weather forecast apps use AI methods to either make the forecast or ‘interpolate’ from larger grids to your hometown, introducing the potential for significant errors."
When Apps Can Be Useful
Despite their shortcomings, some weather applications prove valuable, particularly those that integrate National Weather Service data with meteorologists' expertise. James Belanger, vice president of The Weather Channel's parent company, noted that their app employs numerous models, data sources, weather observers, and staff to enhance accuracy.
"It’s an all-hands-on-deck kind of approach that we take," Belanger said, adding that "not all weather apps are created equal." The Weather Channel app, experiencing surging traffic this week, synthesizes information from over 100,000 citizens and multiple models using artificial intelligence, but human meteorologists retain final approval.
The Pitfalls of Oversimplification
Victor Gensini, a meteorology professor at Northern Illinois University, pointed out that many apps "oversimplify uncertainty and present highly precise-looking numbers that imply more confidence than actually exists." This is particularly problematic during complex storms where nuances are critical.
Steven DiMartino of NY NJ PA Weather echoed this sentiment, stating, "The problem with the weather app is that it just provides data, but not explanation. Anyone can look at data, but you need a meteorologist, you need that human touch to look at it and say, ‘Hmm, that looks like an error; we’re gonna tweak this.’"
Expert-Developed Alternatives
Cory Mottice, a National Weather Service meteorologist, developed the EverythingWeather app to provide easy access to forecasts without navigating the agency's website. He emphasized that his app relies on professional meteorologists from over 125 weather service offices, unlike apps that use raw computer modeling data without human oversight.
"With my approach, you have actual meteorologists that are experts in their field at different places all over the country for that specific area, looking at the data, adjusting it, making the forecast as needed," Mottice said.
Beware of Social Media Hype
Forecasters also caution against relying on social media for weather information, where hype and misinformation can spread rapidly. Kim Klockow McClain, an extreme weather social scientist at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, warned that people are "getting misled by hyped forecasts," which can erode trust over time.
Gensini added, "Weather is complex, and social media tends to reward confidence and drama, not nuance. That mismatch is a real challenge during major events like this."
In summary, while weather apps serve a purpose for routine conditions, human expertise remains vital during dangerous and complex winter storms. Seeking forecasts from local TV, radio newscasts, detailed websites, or apps backed by meteorologists ensures safer and more accurate information.
