Barely a decade after former US President Barack Obama announced a strategic 'pivot' to Asia, America's commitment to the region appears as fragile as it was in 1975, following the end of the Vietnam War. This growing uncertainty is forcing Asia's democratic leaders to confront a stark reality: the current US administration may not reliably honor its long-standing security promises. The sense of abandonment echoes the post-Vietnam era, compelling nations to urgently pursue greater self-reliance in defense and economic policy.
A History of Retreat and Regional Anxiety
The parallels to 1975 are deeply unsettling for regional strategists. Following the US withdrawal from Indochina, which resulted in an estimated 1–3 million Vietnamese and over 58,000 American military deaths, a security vacuum emerged. The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) dissolved by 1977, sending a clear message to US allies like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. The Soviet Union's Pacific fleet soon occupied the Cam Ranh Bay base in Vietnam, directly threatening crucial sea lanes for Japanese and Korean energy imports.
Today, while formal defense treaties with Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, and South Korea remain, the nature of the alliance has shifted. Under the 'America First' doctrine, relationships have become transactional, with shared values and security concerns seemingly taking a backseat to mercantile bargaining. President Donald Trump's tariff wars against Asian allies, his courtship of North Korea's Kim Jong-un, and demands for upfront payments for US protection have fundamentally shaken trust.
The Pivot to Nowhere: Transactional Diplomacy Takes Hold
The Trump administration's approach has been characterized by a protection-racket mentality, treating security guarantees as a service to be purchased. In negotiations, it has reportedly demanded staggering sums—$550 billion from Japan and $350 billion from South Korea—the latter figure representing about 20% of South Korea's GDP. Such demands, coupled with a reluctance to explicitly reaffirm treaty commitments, have created an atmosphere of pervasive doubt.
This stance ignores the strategic value the US derives from its military presence in Okinawa, South Korea, and the Philippines, which overlooks critical flashpoints like the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The administration's apparent indifference to Chinese President Xi Jinping's ambitions in the South China Sea has further alarmed partners who rely on US deterrence to manage a rising China.
Asia Takes Security Into Its Own Hands
Faced with this ambiguity, Asian nations are not waiting passively. They are actively constructing a new architecture for security and economic resilience, learning from the adaptation that followed the 1970s retreat.
Japan has emerged as a primary leader. After Trump abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe salvaged the deal, creating the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). On defense, Japan is dramatically increasing its budget, acquiring counterstrike capabilities, easing restrictions on arms exports, and establishing official security assistance programs with neighbors like Indonesia and Vietnam. A pivotal move is the push for a dedicated national intelligence agency.
South Korea's new President, Lee Jae-myung, has committed to upholding a crucial intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan—a significant breakthrough given historical tensions. He has also announced plans to significantly boost defense spending, aiming to build the world's fourth-largest defense industry by 2030.
Regional cooperation is intensifying. The Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) involving Japan, Australia, the US, and India is seeing renewed Japanese impetus. Meanwhile, ASEAN, under leaders like Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim, is breaking down trade barriers. India, hit by US tariffs, is reorienting its trade toward new regional partners.
The Path Forward: A Networked Indo-Pacific
The collective strategy focuses on building a more networked security and economic architecture. Initiatives now prioritize domestic capabilities in semiconductors, quantum computing, AI, and critical minerals. Deeper cooperation among South Korea, Australia, India, and ASEAN members aims to supplement an increasingly ambiguous US role.
This regional consolidation could ironically support a stated US goal: easing America's strategic burden. However, analysts like former Japanese security adviser Akihisa Nagashima argue that the US remains the only power capable of providing the necessary scale of deterrence against China. The monumental task of stabilizing Asia's complex strategic environment cannot be borne by the US alone. It requires close coordination among like-minded states, beginning with a Japan ready to assume greater leadership, to build a stable and viable structure of peace for all of Asia.
