IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon for Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh in 2026
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, indicating that Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are likely to experience below-normal rainfall. The outlook also suggests that parts of Jammu & Kashmir may receive deficient precipitation, while Ladakh is expected to see above-normal showers.
Regional Rainfall Projections
According to the IMD forecast, almost the entire state of Uttarakhand and large portions of Himachal Pradesh fall into the below-normal rainfall category. For Jammu & Kashmir, the prediction is a mix of normal to below-normal rainfall. CS Tomar, director of the regional meteorological centre in Dehradun, stated, "The probability of below-normal rainfall in Uttarakhand ranges between 35% and 65%." This detailed assessment highlights the varying risks across these hill states.
National and Global Climate Factors
At the national level, IMD has projected monsoon rainfall at 92% of the long period average (LPA), categorizing it as below-normal. Several key factors are influencing this outlook:
- Reduced Snow Cover: Below-normal winter and spring snow cover across the northern hemisphere is a significant concern. IMD explains that reduced snow cover weakens the land-atmosphere thermal contrast, which can lead to a weaker monsoon circulation. There is an inverse relationship between snow cover over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia and southwest monsoon rainfall over India.
- El Niño Development: Global climate signals are also at play. Weak La Niña conditions are transitioning towards ENSO-neutral, with models indicating a possible El Niño phase during the monsoon months. El Niño is typically associated with reduced rainfall over India, adding to the deficit concerns.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A neutral IOD is expected to turn positive later in the season, which may partly offset rainfall deficits. However, this positive influence might not be sufficient to counter the overall below-normal trend.
Implications for Hill States
Meteorologists emphasize that this forecast has serious implications for the hill states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir. Monsoon rains are crucial for:
- Water Resources: Adequate rainfall is essential for replenishing rivers, lakes, and groundwater, which are vital for drinking water and irrigation.
- Agriculture: The farming sector heavily depends on monsoon rains for crop cultivation, and below-normal rainfall could affect yields and livelihoods.
- Hydropower Generation: These states rely on hydropower, and reduced water flow due to deficient rains may impact energy production.
Additionally, uneven rainfall distribution can trigger landslides in vulnerable terrain, posing risks to infrastructure and communities. IMD is expected to issue an updated forecast later in May, providing more clarity as the monsoon season approaches.
This forecast underscores the importance of proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts, such as water conservation and disaster preparedness, in these ecologically sensitive regions.
