Climate Change Overrides La Niña: India Faces Early Summer and Heatwaves
India is witnessing an unusually early onset of summer, with winter ending by early February and heatwave conditions emerging weeks ahead of schedule. This trend reflects how climate change is increasingly overriding traditional weather cycles such as La Niña, according to meteorological experts.
Rising Temperatures Despite La Niña Conditions
An analysis by research group Climate Trends found that rising global temperatures are weakening the cooling influence typically associated with the La Niña phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite the presence of La Niña conditions, 2025 ranked as the eighth warmest year in India since 1901, with the all-India annual mean land surface air temperature 0.28°C above the 1991–2020 long-term average.
The finding is significant because the world experienced multiple La Niña years since 2020, including a rare "triple-dip" event between 2020 and early 2023, one of the longest on record. Normally, La Niña helps cool global temperatures, but increasing greenhouse gas emissions continue to push temperatures higher.
GP Sharma, president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather, explained: "La Niña is marked by colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that tend to suppress global temperatures. Global warming and changing climatic conditions play a major role and cannot be completely outweighed by these ENSO conditions."
Visible Impacts Across India
The impact is already visible across India. Temperatures across parts of northwest India climbed well above seasonal norms since the second half of February, with isolated pockets breaching heatwave thresholds. On Tuesday, Mumbai recorded 40°C, about 7.6°C above normal, briefly entering severe heatwave conditions.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather, stated: "There is no doubt that climate change has reformed some of the typical impacts of La Niña. While La Niña pulls down global temperatures, a consistent rise in global temperatures in recent years has outgrown its cooling effect."
The India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal heatwave days across most parts of the country during March–May, indicating that the hot conditions may intensify in the coming weeks. Regions such as Himachal Pradesh and Vidarbha in Maharashtra have already reported temperatures 3–8°C above normal, signalling an expanding heatwave footprint.
Weak Winter Rainfall and Shrinking Seasons
Meanwhile, winter rainfall remained unusually weak. An 81% rainfall deficit was recorded last month, with just 4.2mm against the normal 22.7mm, despite several western disturbances passing over north India. Most systems were too weak to produce significant precipitation.
Experts warn that a broader trend points to shrinking winters and the near disappearance of spring in parts of the country. As global warming accelerates, natural climate cycles such as La Niña and El Niño are proving less reliable indicators of seasonal conditions, leading to erratic weather patterns and increasing risks of extreme events across India.
Key observations from the report include:
- Early summer onset with heatwaves weeks ahead of schedule.
- 2025 ranked as eighth warmest year despite La Niña.
- Temperature anomalies of 3–8°C above normal in some regions.
- Significant winter rainfall deficit of 81%.
- Forecast of intensified heatwave conditions in coming months.
This situation underscores the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies as traditional weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable due to human-induced global warming.
