Early Winter Withdrawal Grips India Amid Rainfall Shortfall and Weak Weather Systems
Weather analysts have identified a combination of factors leading to an unusually early withdrawal of winter across India this year. Key contributors include a significant lack of winter rain, the absence of robust western disturbances, and a nationwide winter rain deficiency exceeding 40%. This trend is prompting concerns about shifting seasonal patterns and their implications.
IMD Data Highlights Rainfall Scarcity and Temperature Trends
According to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi has recorded only a trace of rainfall so far this month, underscoring the dry conditions. The IMD's earlier monthly outlook had already cautioned that February temperatures were likely to remain above normal, aligning with the current observations.
Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather Services explained, "There has been almost no winter rain since January 1, and the western disturbances passing over north India were largely feeble. As a result, winter conditions are retreating earlier than usual." He noted that while another western disturbance is approaching, its impact on the Delhi-NCR region will be negligible, with only isolated pockets likely to see trace amounts of rainfall.
Temperature Fluctuations and Forecasts
Recent temperature readings in Delhi reflect the warming trend. On Saturday, the maximum temperature settled at 27°C, which is four notches above the normal level, up from 26.3°C recorded the previous day. The minimum temperature was 9.2°C, a notch below normal, compared to 9.8°C on Friday.
For Sunday, the IMD has forecast maximum temperatures ranging between 26°C and 28°C, with minimum temperatures expected to be between 10°C and 12°C. The agency further indicated that minimum temperatures are likely to rise by 1–3°C over the next four days, reinforcing the early departure of winter chill.
Air Quality Deterioration in Delhi
In addition to the early winter withdrawal, Delhi's air quality has deteriorated, slipping into the 'poor' category. The Air Quality Index (AQI) stood at 230 at 4 PM, compared to 197 a day earlier, indicating a worsening of pollution levels.
According to the early warning system from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Delhi's air quality is likely to remain in the 'poor' category from February 15 to 17. This decline in air quality adds another layer of concern amid the changing weather conditions, highlighting the interconnected challenges of climate and environmental health.
The early withdrawal of winter, driven by meteorological factors, underscores the need for continued monitoring and adaptation strategies as weather patterns evolve.
