The winter of 2025 delivered a stark and unsettling blow to the western Himalayas. December, a month synonymous with the onset of heavy snowfall, ended with a near-total absence of rain and snow across several key regions, marking one of the driest starts to the winter season in at least ten years.
A Region Parched: Record Deficits Across States
Uttarakhand recorded a staggering 100% deficit in both rainfall and snowfall for December 2025, a record high shortfall for the decade. Neighbouring Himachal Pradesh witnessed large areas receiving little to no snow throughout the month. The situation was similarly grim in the union territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. Jammu & Kashmir registered a significant precipitation shortfall of nearly 40% during the post-monsoon season, while Ladakh faced an even more severe deficit of over 70% in rain and snow.
Meteorologists point to a primary culprit: the prolonged and pronounced absence of western disturbances. These low-pressure systems, originating from the Mediterranean region, are the lifeline for winter precipitation across north India. Typically, they bring sustained snowfall to the Himalayas in December, which is crucial for replenishing snowpacks that feed rivers during the spring melt. This season, however, these systems remained weak and sporadic, failing to deliver their vital payload.
Not an Anomaly, But a Disturbing Trend
Climate scientists are cautioning against dismissing this snowless December as a mere one-off weather event. They argue it is part of a recurring, multi-year pattern signalling a fundamental shift in the winter climate of the western Himalayas. "The unusually dry Dec 2025 in the western Himalayas mirrors patterns seen in 2024 and 2023. This indicates a multi-year trend rather than an isolated event," stated Anjal Prakash, an IPCC author and professor at the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad.
Prakash explained that studies across the region show a steady decline in seasonal snowfall and snow persistence. This is driven by a dual threat: not only reduced precipitation but also rising temperatures that cause snow to melt faster even when it does fall. "Climate change-driven warming is reducing the proportion of precipitation that falls as snow and shortening snow duration in the western Himalayas," he emphasised. While natural climate variability plays a role in year-to-year fluctuations, the long-term decline is firmly linked to human-induced global warming, which is amplified in mountain regions.
Mukhtar Ahmed, a senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department and director of the Srinagar regional centre, noted that while winter precipitation in Jammu & Kashmir has historically been variable, the past few years show a consistently worrying pattern of low rainfall and snowfall, deviating from recent norms.
The Growing Spectre of 'Snow Drought'
The change is increasingly visible in scientific data. Research across Himalayan river basins, including the Sutlej and Ravi in Himachal Pradesh, documents a steady decrease in snow cover area over consecutive seasons. Scientists term this growing phenomenon a "snow drought"—a condition where reduced snowfall combined with accelerated snowmelt shortens the snow season and shifts precipitation patterns towards late winter or early spring.
Climate model projections reinforce these observations. Anjal Prakash noted that models consistently forecast reduced snowfall across the western Himalayas, especially at elevations below 2,000 metres, as warming lowers the snow fraction of total precipitation. "Even where total precipitation may increase at higher elevations, the snow fraction is declining," he said. Consequently, snow cover during autumn, winter, and spring is shrinking, with some basins projected to lose up to 25% of their snow cover by the century's end.
Experts warn this trend is likely to persist unless global temperatures are stabilised. Farooq Azam, a cryosphere expert at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu, highlighted the scale of the shift using recent data. "Our snow update showed a significant decline in seasonal snow across the Hindu Kush Himalaya region in 2024, with snow persistence 24% below normal—the lowest level in 23 years," Azam told TOI. He added that the trend of declining snow cover will likely continue as long as global warming persists, with ICIMOD's 2025 snow data scheduled for release in April 2026.
