History has witnessed powerful figures who reshaped the global order through sheer force of will, from Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar to Genghis Khan, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Adolf Hitler. Each conqueror, in turn, drew inspiration from his predecessors. In the modern era, Donald Trump has carved his own disruptive path, bending institutions and international norms to his will. After a dramatic return to the White House in 2025, his second term has been defined by upheaval. As we look ahead to 2026, several critical questions loom over his presidency and his legacy.
The Epstein Files: A Political Albatross for Trump?
One of the most persistent shadows over Donald Trump's second term is the ongoing saga of Jeffrey Epstein. Before returning to power, Trump and his MAGA allies loudly promised to unveil the secrets of the "Epstein vault," with Attorney General Pam Bondi claiming a "client list" was on her desk. However, the Department of Justice later released heavily redacted memos, stating no official list existed, leaving the base with old flight logs and blurry photos instead of bombshell revelations.
Trump's subsequent pivot has been stark. By mid-2025, he dismissed the files as "boring" and a "Democrat hoax," a reversal that has caused significant whiplash within his movement. Key figures like Kash Patel and Susie Wiles now echo the line that there is nothing to see, while dissenters like Marjorie Taylor Greene have been sidelined after accusing Trump of protecting "his friends."
The political danger for Trump in 2026 is not primarily legal; it is narrative. The Epstein files were meant to symbolise his crusade against the corrupt elite. Instead, his handling of the issue risks making him appear complicit or hypocritical. With federal courts ordering the release of thousands more pages and new FOIA suits pushing for records, the story will not fade. Polls suggest only 40% of GOP voters approve of his handling of the matter, a dangerous erosion of loyalty. For a president reliant on a unified base, the Epstein saga may become a defining liability, chipping away at his credibility with every new drip of information.
2026 Midterms: Will Trump Become a Lame-Duck President?
The 2026 US midterm elections are shaping up as a referendum on Trumpism in power. While Trump's name won't be on the ballot, the results will hinge on issues central to his presidency: the economy, cultural fractures, and voter fatigue. The Republican Party's hold on the Senate appears relatively secure due to a favourable map, but control of the House of Representatives hangs by a thread.
Republicans cling to a razor-thin majority in the House. A modest swing could flip control to the Democrats, who need only a handful of seats. If Democrats regain the House, Trump would instantly transform into a lame-duck president, facing a barrage of investigations, legislative gridlock, and blocked funding priorities. This would cripple a presidency built on spectacle and momentum.
The core challenge for Republicans is economic. Despite cooling, inflation remains a persistent irritant, with real wages stagnant and housing costs high. Voters largely blame Trump for cost-of-living pressures. Furthermore, the MAGA coalition shows signs of strain over issues like foreign policy, Israel, and internal purity tests. These divisions impact candidate quality in swing districts, where maximalist primary winners often struggle to appeal to moderate voters. The 2026 midterms may deliver a harsh lesson: grievance politics can win elections, but governing without delivering economic relief has its limits.
The MAGA Civil War: A Movement Turning Inward
The MAGA movement, once unified by opposition to a common enemy, is now quietly unravelling from within. Several fault lines have emerged that threaten its cohesion. The issue of Israel has become a live fracture, splitting those who see unconditional support as a moral imperative from the "America First" wing that views Middle East commitments as elite decadence.
Immigration policy has widened the split, with Trump's backing of high-skilled visas triggering a backlash from nativists and Groypers who see it as a demographic invasion. This exposes a fundamental disagreement over whether America is a civic project or an inherited identity. The Epstein saga has also turned the anti-elite instinct inward, making loyalty to Trump's handling of the files a new litmus test.
Figures like JD Vance are attempting to hold the coalition together, playing a unifying role akin to Genghis Khan reuniting warring tribes. However, a formal split in 2026 is less likely than the emergence of two factions wearing the same colours: one focused on elections and governance, the other thriving on permanent rebellion and ideological purity. This internal conflict exhausts voters and weakens the movement's effectiveness, proving the ancient truth that once the external enemy is gone, the empire begins to fight itself.
Trump's Coveted Nobel: Why the Prize Remains Elusive
Donald Trump's fixation on winning the Nobel Peace Prize is well-documented, driven largely by a rivalry with Barack Obama, who won the award in 2009. Trump has repeatedly claimed he deserves the honour, citing conflicts he asserts he ended, from Israel-Hamas to tensions between India and Pakistan.
The reality, however, does not match the boasts. Many of these "wars" were not conventional conflicts, and pauses like the 2025 Gaza hostage-release deal were largely facilitated by regional players like Egypt and Qatar, with the US playing a limited role. India publicly rejected Trump's claim of mediating with Pakistan. More fundamentally, Trump's foreign policy record—withdrawing from multilateral agreements, hollowing out institutions, and treating diplomacy as spectacle—is at odds with the Nobel Committee's criteria for "fraternity between nations."
Nominations from allies like Benjamin Netanyahu are seen as political gestures, not serious bids. The Nobel Committee actively dislikes lobbying. A panel of superforecasters from The Economist places Trump's chances of winning in 2026 at a mere 2%. The prize does not award medals to settle personal rivalries. For all his improbabilities, Trump's quest for the Nobel is likely to end in continued disappointment, a symbol of recognition that remains just out of reach.
Trump's Unbreakable Spell: A Legacy Defying Historical Precedent
What sets Donald Trump apart from history's other powerful figures is his resilience. Alexander, Caesar, Genghis Khan, Napoleon, and Hitler all met decisive ends—their empires collapsed, they were assassinated, exiled, or died in ruin. Trump, however, survived what would have been political death for any other leader: electoral defeat in 2020, impeachment, indictments, and being banned from major platforms.
He not only returned but did so by bending the American republic and its institutions to his will. He broke the assumption that losing delegitimises a leader and that scandal leads to permanent exile. In 2026, he is no longer just a president; he is a proof of concept. The outcomes of the Epstein fallout, the midterms, the MAGA civil war, and his Nobel pursuit will test whether the old rules of history still apply. If he navigates these challenges, the lesson will be clear: in modern politics, narrative dominance can override finality, and exile is no longer terminal. That reality, more than any single policy, is what the world must reckon with in the year ahead.
