The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its updated long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season, projecting below-normal rainfall across several key regions and warning of heatwave conditions in multiple states starting June.
Monsoon Rainfall Forecast
The country is expected to receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of four per cent, the IMD stated in a post on X. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90 per cent of the LPA, indicating below-normal rainfall for the entire monsoon season from June to September 2026.
El Nino Concerns Drive Forecast
The update comes as concerns mount over developing El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific, historically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India. According to Reuters, an El Nino-weakened monsoon in 2026 could bring the lowest rainfall in 11 years, raising concerns over crops, food prices, and economic growth. IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that neutral ENSO conditions are transitioning towards El Nino, with the probability of El Nino conditions increasing to 82 per cent by June and crossing 90 per cent by July and August.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. It disrupts the Walker Circulation and often suppresses monsoon activity by weakening cross-equatorial flow and shifting rainfall patterns eastward. A strong El Nino event is a particular concern this year, with potential impacts intensifying in the latter half of the season from July to September.
Region-wise Rainfall Outlook
Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. However, Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India, and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the season, the IMD said.
June Forecast: Below-Normal Rain, Above-Normal Heat
Rainfall in June is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country, at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. Some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India, and the southern peninsula may see normal to above-normal rainfall. Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest, and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal, Mohapatra added.
Heatwave Warnings for 11 States
The IMD warned of an above-normal number of heatwave days in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh. Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu are also likely to see increased heatwave activity.
