Iran's Streets Erupt in Protest as Economic Crisis Deepens
For over a week now, Iran has been gripped by significant unrest. The protests, driven by a severe cost-of-living crisis and currency devaluation, are spreading rapidly. They started in the capital Tehran and major bazaars but have now reached smaller towns across the country.
A Familiar Pattern of Repression Emerges
Despite initial government promises to engage with public concerns, authorities have launched a harsh crackdown. The state has cut internet access across many regions. Given the regime's strict control over traditional media, accurate casualty figures remain elusive.
However, a US-based human rights monitoring group reports at least 538 people have died in the government's violent response. The autocratic regime views dissent as a direct threat to its survival.
These scenes feel tragically familiar. Hundreds lost their lives during the 2022 protests following Mahsa Amini's death. Many more perished in the 2019 unrest sparked by sudden fuel price hikes.
The Regime's Standard Response: Force and Foreign Blame
The Ali Khamenei-led government typically responds with force, branding protesters as enemies of the Islamic Revolution. Even the elected reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, avoids accountability. He points fingers at Israel and the United States instead.
Yet, given the current movement's scale and intensity, the old "foreign agents" excuse may not shield Khamenei this time. The people's grievances appear too widespread and deeply rooted in domestic economic suffering.
US Threats Introduce New Complications
US President Donald Trump has issued stark warnings. He stated the US would "shoot at Iran" if protesters face attacks. These threats, possibly encouraged by recent US operations in Venezuela, add a dangerous international dimension.
Tehran has responded with a clear warning. Iran will retaliate if the United States launches any attack. This tension comes less than a year after a brief war between Iran and Israel in June. During that conflict, US forces bombed Iranian nuclear facilities.
Historical Lessons Caution Against Intervention
History offers important lessons. Nearly fifty years ago, the Iranian Revolution itself grew from an anti-US movement. It ultimately toppled the Washington-backed Pahlavi dynasty.
President Trump might be correct that Iranian protesters need support. However, any US intervention short of complete regime change could backfire. It might actually strengthen the Khamenei regime's grip on power.
Such action would reinforce the regime's longstanding narrative. It would claim the unrest is purely a foreign conspiracy. Military moves by the US could undermine a protest movement that currently lacks clear leadership.
Foreign intervention might also give the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a perfect pretext. They could justify even harsher repression against their own people.
A Call for Restraint and Internal Resolution
Therefore, President Trump should resist exploiting Iranian grievances for any political ends. A destabilized Iran would likely please few beyond Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The recent exchange with Israel may have degraded Iran's military capabilities. However, it did little to weaken the state's internal control. Regime change remains an unlikely outcome, even as protesters show remarkable resilience.
The current deadlock will only deepen unless the Khamenei regime halts its violent crackdown. The government must start listening to voices of reason and addressing the people's legitimate economic concerns. The path forward requires internal dialogue, not external escalation.
