Iran's Covert Plan to Weaponize the Strait of Hormuz Against US-Israel Revealed
Even before the United States and Israel launched their military strikes, Iran had already activated a sophisticated strategic plan that extends far beyond conventional military confrontation. According to exclusive sources cited by Reuters, the Islamic Republic has been quietly preparing to transform the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global artery responsible for approximately 20% of the world's oil supply—into a powerful strategic lever against its adversaries.
Asymmetric Warfare Strategy: Targeting the Global Economy
Iran's approach builds upon painful lessons learned during the 1980s "Tanker War" with Iraq, when attacks on commercial shipping turned the Persian Gulf into a dangerous corridor requiring extensive US naval protection. Today, however, Iran possesses far more sophisticated and cost-effective capabilities, including advanced missile systems and drone arsenals capable of threatening maritime traffic across a wide geographical area.
"Iran is outgunned—there is no way it can defeat them in a direct confrontation," explained Ali Vaez, Director of the International Crisis Group's Iran Project. "Following the 12-day war last June, Tehran has been exploring ways to extend any future conflict in both time and space. If Iran takes the global economy hostage, Trump would blink first."
Recent military actions have demonstrated how quickly Iran can disrupt shipping movements without resorting to traditional methods like mine-laying, showcasing their evolved asymmetric warfare capabilities.
The Revolutionary Guards' Prepared Plan
According to intelligence sources, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had long prepared for a potential clash with Washington and Tel Aviv. This contingency plan was officially activated on February 28, following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the current conflict.
Rather than confronting superior military forces directly, Iran's strategy aims to inflict significant economic and military pressure on the United States through two primary methods:
- Targeting global oil flows through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz
- Striking US military positions across the Persian Gulf region
"This is asymmetric warfare par excellence, in which Iran achieves outsized, even global effects through a small number of attacks that impose painful costs," said Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "The goal is to create economic pain, further undermining support for the war in the United States and increasing pressure on Washington to end it."
The "Mosaic" Strategy: Decentralized Command Structure
Tehran is implementing what analysts describe as a "Mosaic" strategy—dispersing attacks across the Middle East using drones and low-cost missiles, tactics previously employed by Iranian proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. This decentralized approach spreads command and control functions to withstand any attempts to eliminate Iran's leadership structure.
Even following Khamenei's death, key figures including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and national security chief Ali Larijani continue to direct military operations from Tehran, ensuring continuity in Iran's strategic response.
US Response Criticized as Unprepared
Vaez has criticized the American response as lacking adequate preparation, noting that Washington failed to anticipate several critical elements:
- Drone attacks on military and civilian infrastructure
- Significant disruptions to global shipping routes
- Evacuation requirements for personnel in the region
While the United States possesses the military capability to severely weaken Iran's conventional forces, analysts note that achieving a complete defeat would require a large-scale land invasion involving up to one million troops—a level of commitment the US has shown little appetite for in recent conflicts.
Iran's Strategic Objectives: Survival and Resistance
For Iran, the immediate objective remains national survival against superior military opponents. Beyond this defensive goal, Tehran seeks to demonstrate that coercion—whether military, economic, or diplomatic—cannot force compliance with external demands.
By controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz and expanding the battlefield far beyond its national borders, Iran is betting it can outlast a militarily superior opponent through economic warfare and strategic patience. Any disruption to this vital maritime passage sends immediate shockwaves through global energy markets, affecting oil prices and supply chains worldwide.
The Islamic Republic's strategy represents a calculated gamble that economic pain inflicted on the global economy will ultimately pressure Washington to de-escalate the conflict, even as Iran faces significant military disadvantages in conventional terms.
