Nagpur: Vidarbha and parts of Central India may have to wait at least another four to five days for the arrival of the southwest monsoon, with weather conditions indicating a sluggish advance over the region, which has already missed the June 15 onset date.
Current Weather Scenario
While scattered showers were reported in isolated pockets, rainfall activity remained largely subdued across Vidarbha on Tuesday. As per India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, Amravati was the only district to record significant rainfall, receiving 15 mm in the last 24 hours, while other districts remained dry. At the same time, heat intensified across the region, with Brahmapuri recording the highest maximum temperature at 42.2° C, followed by Gondia at 42° C, Akola and Wardha at 40.9° C each, and Nagpur at 40° C. Temperatures in several districts were 5° C to 6° C above normal, prompting IMD to issue a heatwave warning for parts of Vidarbha over the next few days.
Forecast for Monsoon Advance
Regional Meteorological Centre forecasting in charge Pravin Kumar said the southwest monsoon is likely to advance further into parts of Maharashtra after another four to five days. "Scattered rainfall being witnessed in Vidarbha is mainly due to local convection. Even in areas already covered by the monsoon, rainfall activity has remained weak," he said.
Global Climate Factors
The delayed advance comes amid evolving global climate conditions. The latest IMD ENSO Bulletin for June 2026 indicates El Nino conditions have developed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen during the southwest monsoon season, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to persist. Although El Nino does not directly determine local weather events, it is generally associated with weaker monsoon over parts of India.
Rainfall Outlook
IMD has so far indicated favourable conditions for further monsoon progress into Maharashtra without announcing an immediate onset timeline for Vidarbha. Rainfall in coming days is expected to remain isolated and scattered, driven more by local weather systems than organised monsoon circulation.
Advisory for Farmers
Agriculture experts advised farmers not to rush into sowing based on initial pre-monsoon showers. With the possibility of prolonged dry spells and delayed monsoon advancement, premature sowing could lead to seed loss and the need for re-sowing. Farmers are urged to closely monitor weather forecasts, ensure adequate seed availability, and take sowing decisions only after receiving sustained and widespread rainfall. A few more days of patience could help avoid significant crop losses.
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