Renewables Poised to Dominate India's Electricity Grid by 2070, but Structural Hurdles Loom
India's electricity landscape is on the brink of a transformative shift, with renewable energy sources projected to dominate the grid by 2070, according to a recent study by the government's policy think tank, NITI Aayog. However, the transition faces significant structural challenges that have tempered the pace of actual renewable generation so far.
Current Energy Mix and Future Projections
Coal remains the backbone of India's electricity system, accounting for nearly 74% of generation and providing reliable, low-cost base-load power. In its study titled 'Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero', NITI Aayog indicates that this dominance could steadily erode as India accelerates its clean energy transition.
Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), which assumes the continuation of existing policies and realistic deployment trends, renewable energy's share in electricity generation could surge from around 20% in 2024-25 to more than 80% by 2070. Concurrently, coal's share is expected to decline sharply to 6-10% by 2070. In the more ambitious Net Zero Scenario (NZS), aligned with India's 2070 net-zero emissions target, coal-based generation could drop to zero.
Nuclear Power's Expanding Role
As coal's role diminishes, nuclear power is set to expand gradually, increasing its share from about 3% at present to 5-8% by 2070 under CPS. This growth reflects nuclear energy's growing importance in displacing coal-based generation while providing carbon-free base-load power. The study projects nuclear power capacity to grow from the current 8.18 GW in 2025 to 90-135 GW by 2070 under CPS—an increase of 10 to 15 times. Under NZS, nuclear capacity could reach 295-320 GW.
Nuclear power is crucial to achieving long-term goals of power sector decarbonisation, the study notes, highlighting its ability to provide firm low-carbon electricity, high-temperature industrial heat, and reliable power for green hydrogen production.
Structural Challenges in Renewable Energy Deployment
Over the past decade, India's renewable capacity has more than tripled, rising from 76.38 GW in March 2014 to 258 GW by December 2025. Out of India's total installed capacity of 513 GW, fossil-based capacity accounts for 48%, renewable energy sources account for 50%, and nuclear makes up the balance of 1.7%.
Despite this impressive growth in capacity, the contribution of renewable energy to actual electricity generation has remained modest, with the share increasing from 19.6% in 2013-14 to only 22% in 2024-25. This gap is largely attributed to structural challenges associated with renewable sources like solar and wind power.
These sources typically operate at lower Capacity Utilisation Factors (CUF) and are affected by intermittency, variability-driven curtailment, grid constraints, limited system flexibility, and dispatch challenges. The intermittency of renewable energy often poses challenges for round-the-clock electricity supply, making coal-fired generation essential for grid stability and meeting rapidly growing electricity demand.
Storage and Grid Management Needs
A renewables-heavy grid necessitates a massive expansion in storage. The study projects Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to scale up from less than 50 GW in 2030 to about 1,300-1,400 GW under CPS and up to 2,500-3,000 GW under NZS by 2070. Pumped Storage Plants are also expected to play a crucial role in providing long-duration storage and grid stability, growing from 13-19 GW in 2030 to about 110 GW in CPS and 150-165 GW in NZS.
Expanding clean and flexible resources will require effective grid management, as the rising share of variable renewable energy increases intermittency risks while long-duration energy storage and nuclear capacity are yet to scale sufficiently to provide balancing support.
Coal's Continued Role in the Transition
Despite the push for clean energy, coal is expected to remain critical in the near to medium term. Large-scale renewable deployment depends on long-duration storage technologies, which remain expensive and are yet to be deployed at scale, while nuclear projects face high capital costs and long gestation periods.
Under CPS, coal capacity is projected to rise from 268 GW in 2025 to a peak of 450-470 GW by 2050. In the Net Zero Scenario, coal capacity could peak earlier at around 420-435 GW by 2045 before gradually declining as storage technologies and clean alternatives become more competitive. Over time, new coal additions are expected to slow, and parts of the existing fleet may operate at low utilisation as reserve capacity.
Pathways for Decarbonisation
The study outlines multiple pathways depending on how quickly clean technologies scale. In one pathway, a sizable coal fleet continues even in 2070, with deep decarbonisation relying on large-scale deployment of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies at coal plants. CCUS refers to technologies that capture carbon dioxide emissions and either store them underground or reuse them, preventing them from entering the atmosphere.
This pathway becomes relevant if renewable or nuclear expansion slows due to high costs, land and clearance challenges, grid constraints, or delays in nuclear project development. In another scenario, limited nuclear growth would require a far sharper scale-up of renewables—especially solar, potentially exceeding 5,500 GW—significantly increasing the need for energy storage to maintain grid reliability and flexibility.
To address these challenges, the study suggested scaling nuclear capacity to 100 GW by 2047 and 200-300 GW by 2070, including advanced reactors and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to deliver reliable 24x7 clean power. It proposed encouraging large industrial and captive power consumers to transition from coal-based captive plants to SMRs, enabling cleaner baseload generation.
This shift would support national low-carbon transition goals while maximising the use of existing land, transmission connectivity, and industrial infrastructure, the study concluded.
