The year 2026 has begun on a grim note for Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine reaching a symbolic and sobering milestone. As of January 2026, the war has lasted 1,418 days—the exact duration of what Russia calls the Great Patriotic War, the Soviet Union's involvement in World War II. The stark contrast, however, lies in the outcome: while Soviet forces reached Berlin in that time, Putin's military campaign has captured less than 1% of Ukrainian territory in the past year alone.
Military Setbacks and Diplomatic Humiliations
The Kremlin's military struggles were thrown into sharp relief by a swift American operation. On January 3, 2026, US forces captured Venezuela's dictator Nicolás Maduro, a key Kremlin ally, and his wife. This display of efficiency served as a demoralizing contrast to Russia's own protracted "special military operation." Russian political analyst Abbas Gallyamov noted the event highlighted the "striking inefficiency" of Russian military and intelligence services compared to their US counterparts.
Further embarrassment followed when the US seized a Russian-escorted oil tanker south of Iceland. The incident sparked outrage on pro-war Russian social media, with critics lambasting the government's weak response. These events underscore a growing perception of Russian vulnerability on the global stage.
Domestic Cracks and Soaring Costs
Within Russia, the war's immense burden is becoming increasingly unsustainable. The human cost is staggering: from early 2025 to mid-October, at least 100,000 Russian soldiers died, according to the Economist. The battlefield has transformed into a drone-dominated "kill zone," destroying up to 80% of equipment and manpower on both sides.
The financial toll is equally crushing. Russia's total military spending for 2025 is estimated at a colossal 15.5 trillion rubles, a fivefold nominal increase from 2021. To fund the war and plug a record budget deficit, the government raised the Value-Added Tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% on January 1, 2026, directly increasing the cost of living for ordinary citizens.
Public support for the war is eroding. A Levada Center poll revealed a significant shift: by December 2025, only 25% of Russians favored continuing the conflict, down from 37% a year earlier, while 67% wanted peace talks to begin.
Elite Discontent and Economic Stagnation
Signs of discontent are also emerging within Putin's inner circle. His longtime associate, Dimitry Kozak, who resigned over the war, recently published a bold reform program in a leading Russian media outlet. Expert Oleg Ivanov called it a "courageous" plan for deep state transformation.
The war-driven economy is stifling investment. High interest rates to combat inflation have crippled growth, prompting even loyal oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska to share criticism of the government's failure to foster a healthy investment climate. Additionally, the Putin elite remains cut off from billions in private assets frozen in European banks.
Despite these mounting pressures, Putin retains powerful repressive tools to quell public dissent. However, his ability to continue the war indefinitely hinges on the support of his Kremlin entourage and oligarch cronies. Analysts suggest that if the United States provides Ukraine with advanced arms to counter Russian drones and missiles, thereby increasing the cost and futility of the war, this elite support could fracture. Such a scenario might finally pressure Putin to negotiate a peace plan acceptable to Ukraine.
