Fresh intelligence assessments from the United States paint a concerning picture of Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-term ambitions in Eastern Europe, directly contradicting the optimistic claims of progress made by former US President Donald Trump's negotiation team. According to six sources familiar with the matter, US spy agencies consistently warn that Putin has not given up his goal of seizing all of Ukraine and reclaiming territories that were part of the former Soviet Union.
Divergent Narratives: Intelligence vs. Diplomacy
The most recent intelligence report, dated late September, asserts that the Russian leader remains a threat to Europe, despite his public denials. This stance has been a constant in US findings since the full-scale invasion began in 2022 and aligns with the views of European allies, particularly nations like Poland and the Baltic states, which fear they could be future targets.
"The intelligence has always been that Putin wants more," confirmed Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, in an interview. This reality stands in stark contrast to the narrative pushed by Trump and his negotiators, who have publicly stated that Putin is eager to end the conflict. A White House official, while not addressing the intelligence directly, claimed "tremendous progress" towards peace, saying a deal is "closer than ever before."
The Sticking Point: Territory and Security Guarantees
The core of the stalled peace talks, led by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and billionaire Steve Witkoff, revolves around territory. Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and large parts of the Donbas, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Putin claims all these areas as Russian land.
As part of a proposed 20-point plan, Trump is pressuring Kyiv to withdraw from the small part of Donetsk it still holds, a demand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has firmly rejected. While negotiators made headway on security guarantees for Ukraine in Berlin talks, a major condition emerged. One source indicated these US-backed guarantees, which would involve a mostly European security force and a cap on Ukraine's military, hinge on Zelenskiy agreeing to cede territory—a point other diplomats dispute.
Russian Demands and Western Skepticism
Putin, during a recent news conference, offered no compromises, insisting his terms must be met after his forces' territorial gains this year. His unwavering position raises doubts about the viability of any deal that does not grant Russia significant concessions.
Some within the Trump administration acknowledge the challenge. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted the uncertainty, stating, "I don't know if Putin wants to do a deal or Putin wants to take the whole country." This skepticism is echoed by the intelligence community's persistent warnings, suggesting that any peace agreement may only be a temporary pause in Putin's broader imperial ambitions, which continue to cast a long shadow over European security.
