As 2025 draws to a close, the annual exercise of reflection feels more dispiriting than hopeful. The past year has been a severe test for global faith in the future, marked by deep-seated anxiety, the relentless rise of populism, and the double-edged sword of technological advancement. The very foundations of the post-war liberal world order seem more fragile than ever.
The Gathering Storm: Economy and the Ghost of Protectionism
While the global economy has stabilized at a growth rate just above 3% in the years following the COVID-19 crisis, a new cloud of uncertainty now looms large. This uncertainty stems directly from the tariff policies of US President Donald Trump, whose actions evoke the century-old spectre of America's Smoot-Hawley tariffs from the 1930s. This protectionist shift has placed the fate of the entire international economic architecture, built painstakingly after World War II, in the balance. The question is no longer abstract: will this order survive the current onslaught?
Technology's Paradox: Connection and Division
Beyond bread-and-butter economics, a profound societal unease has taken root. Core values cherished for generations—individual freedom, social equality, humanism, and harmony—are perceived to be under sustained threat. Ironically, the very technologies hailed for their potential, like social media and artificial intelligence (AI), have exacerbated these challenges. They have accelerated socio-economic inequalities, fostering a disgruntled underclass. This discontent has become fertile ground for populist demagogues who peddle a belligerent form of nationalism, dividing societies instead of uniting them.
These tools have created novel means of social control and have made civil society more angry, combative, and disrespectful, with fractures often appearing within families. The 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) phenomenon under Trump is a primary symptom of this global trend, which finds echoes in democracies worldwide, including India.
A Cycle of Hope and Retreat
The past decade has seen fears of a 1930s-style historical repetition grow. While moments like the defeat of ISIS and Trump's 2020 election loss offered respite, symbolized by the "green shoots" of hope, 2025 witnessed a stark reversal. The Taliban's resurgence and the triumphant return of a more virulent MAGA politics have been defining features. The institutional checks and balances of the world's oldest democracy are faltering, and similar strongman figures are ascendant globally.
Simultaneously, the resolve to combat global warming weakens daily. Unending strife in Africa, the devastating war in Ukraine, and the horrific genocide in Gaza have added layers of tragedy to an already bleak landscape. These cascading crises make it exceptionally difficult to greet 2026 with renewed optimism.
The Crooked Timber of Humanity and the Light Ahead
Philosopher Isaiah Berlin aptly termed this inherent flaw the "crooked timber" of humanity—our capacity for both profound good and profound evil. The current zeitgeist feels dominated by baser instincts. Yet, history reminds us that dawn inevitably follows the darkest night. Individual acts of kindness persist everywhere, and the basic goodness of people need not be abandoned.
As the Urdu poet Faiz Ahmad Faiz suggested, the long night is still just a night; dawn will break. Ultimately, people make their own history. The task ahead is to amplify the light by drawing out the best in ourselves and others. In the words of singer-poet Leonard Cohen, whose anthem rings apt: "Ring the bells that still can ring... There is a crack in everything, That's how the light gets in." It is with this resilient hope that we must step into the new year.
