A new report from a United Nations agency has sounded a stark warning for Pakistan, projecting its population could surge to a staggering 400 million by 2063. This rapid growth presents an urgent challenge for the nation's development, economy, and social stability.
Alarming Projections and Current Realities
The data comes from the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) State of World Population Report 2024, titled "Interwoven Lives, Threads of Hope." It highlights that Pakistan currently stands as the world's fifth most populous country, with an estimated population of 245 million people in 2023. The country's growth rate, while having slowed slightly, remains among the highest in the region, posing significant hurdles.
Dr. Luay Shabaneh, the UNFPA representative for Pakistan, emphasized the gravity of the situation. He pointed out that the nation's population has doubled since 1998, when it was recorded at 132 million. This explosive growth trajectory, if unchecked, will place immense pressure on Pakistan's already strained resources and infrastructure.
The Core Issues: Unmet Needs and Gender Inequality
The report identifies a critical gap at the heart of the challenge: unmet need for family planning. A significant portion of married women in Pakistan who wish to delay or avoid pregnancy lack access to modern contraceptive methods. This gap directly fuels the high fertility rate.
Beyond just family planning services, the analysis delves into deeper systemic issues. It underscores how gender inequality and harmful social norms perpetuate the cycle of rapid population growth. When women and girls are denied education, economic opportunities, and bodily autonomy, they often have limited say in decisions about marriage and childbearing.
Child marriage remains a persistent problem, with the report noting that 18% of Pakistani girls are married before the age of 18. Early marriage almost invariably leads to early and frequent pregnancies, further accelerating population growth.
Potential Consequences and a Path Forward
The implications of ignoring this demographic trend are severe. A population ballooning to 400 million would exacerbate challenges in every sector:
- Economic Strain: The workforce would grow, but job creation may not keep pace, leading to higher unemployment and poverty.
- Resource Scarcity: Increased demand for water, food, and energy could outstrip supply, creating conflicts and shortages.
- Infrastructure Pressure: Schools, hospitals, housing, and transportation systems would be overwhelmed.
- Environmental Stress: More people would strain natural resources and contribute to environmental degradation.
The UNFPA report is not just a warning; it offers a roadmap. The solution lies in empowering women and girls. By investing in quality education for girls, ensuring economic opportunities for women, and guaranteeing universal access to sexual and reproductive health services and rights, Pakistan can enable individuals to make informed choices about their families.
This approach would naturally lead to a decline in fertility rates, as evidenced in other nations that have followed this path. Transforming this urgent population challenge into a demographic dividend requires immediate and sustained policy action focused on human rights and gender equality. The time for Pakistan to act is now, before the window of opportunity closes.
