The United States has initiated a fundamental reset of its flagship H-1B visa programme, moving decisively away from a system long defined by chance. The computer-generated lottery, which for years determined the futures of thousands of skilled foreign professionals, will be replaced by a wage-weighted selection model. This profound structural change, announced by the US Department of Homeland Security, redefines the very premise of the visa, prioritising higher wages and experience over volume.
From Luck to Value: The End of the H-1B Lottery Era
For countless Indian tech professionals and other global talent, the H-1B visa lottery symbolised a high-stakes gamble. Applicants and employers would register and hope, with a random computer draw often deciding life-altering outcomes. This foundation is now being dismantled. The new rule, set to take effect on February 27, 2026, for the Fiscal Year 2027 registration season, will rank registrations based on the wage level set by the US Department of Labour.
Under this framework, candidates offered higher salaries will see their probability of selection increase significantly, while those with lower wage offers will carry less weight. The stated aim of the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is to protect American wages and job opportunities, arguing that the old lottery system was misused by some employers flooding it with low-wage applications.
A Dual Blow: Sky-High Fees and Stricter Scrutiny
This overhaul is part of a broader immigration crackdown. In a parallel move, following a proposal by President Donald Trump, the US is considering imposing a staggering $100,000 entry fee on new H-1B applications. This represents a seismic shift from the current total fees, which range between $2,000 and $5,000. Hiring a foreign professional will transform into a high-stakes capital investment for companies.
Furthermore, enhanced screening measures are already in place. Since December 15, intensified vetting, including routine social media checks, has begun for H-1B and dependent H-4 visa applicants. This has led to significant delays in visa interview appointments across India, with many pushed back by months, leaving several applicants stranded.
Winners, Losers, and the Stark Impact on India
The implications for India, which dominates the H-1B pipeline, are immense. In the fiscal year ending September 2024, Indian nationals received 57 percent of all H-1B approvals, accounting for 80,449 of the roughly 1.41 lakh visas issued. The new system will reshape internal competition dramatically.
Senior professionals and high-wage earners stand to gain. An analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy indicates selection chances soar by 107 percent for those at the highest wage Level IV. Conversely, early-career professionals and recent US graduates, many of whom are Indian students, face the greatest risk, with chances for Level I wage earners plummeting by 48 percent.
The business model of major Indian IT firms like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, and Cognizant, which rely heavily on placing professionals at US client sites, is directly challenged. Higher wage thresholds and the proposed exorbitant fee will force a strategic shift, likely slowing entry-level hiring and focusing sponsorship on senior, high-value roles.
While supporters argue the reform rewards genuine skill and protects US workers, critics warn of unintended consequences in sectors like healthcare and education, and a potential slowdown in innovation. One reality is now clear: the H-1B visa is no longer a lottery ticket. It has been repositioned as a high-value visa, where preparation, experience, and the salary on offer matter infinitely more than luck.
