Kim Jong-un's Daughter Named as Successor, Raising Alarms of Internal Conflict
In a move that could destabilize North Korea's leadership, Kim Jong-un has reportedly chosen his daughter, Kim Ju-ae, as his heir apparent, according to South Korea's spy agency. This decision, revealed to parliament this week, is likely to ignite a fierce power struggle within the ruling Kim family, warns a former intelligence official.
Potential Rivalry with Ambitious Aunt
Rah Jong-yil, a former South Korean ambassador to the UK and deputy director of Seoul's intelligence service, told The Telegraph that Kim Ju-ae, believed to be 13 years old, could face significant opposition from her aunt, Kim Yo-jong. Yo-jong, 38, is known for her ambition and ruthlessness and has been planning to seize power if the dictator dies or becomes incapacitated.
"It depends on the timing, but I believe if Kim Yo-jong believed that she had a chance of becoming the top leader then she would take it," Mr. Jong-yil said. "For her, there are no reasons to refrain from putting into effect her own political project." He added that a power struggle "is probable" given the dynasty's history of eliminating political rivals through assassination.
Ju-ae's Rising Profile and Yo-jong's Power Base
Kim Ju-ae, the only known child of Kim Jong-un and his wife Ri Sol-ju, has become increasingly visible at official events, fueling speculation about her grooming for succession. She has appeared alongside her father at ballistic missile test launches and diplomatic gatherings, including a military parade in Beijing marking Japan's defeat in World War II.
However, Kim Yo-jong holds substantial political and military support within the Workers' Party of Korea and is widely regarded as the second most powerful figure in the country. South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) noted that Ju-ae's "increasingly prominent public presence at official events" was a key factor in assessing her as the chosen successor. They indicated it would be significant if she attends North Korea's upcoming party congress, a major political event held every five years.
Historical Precedents of Violence
The Kim family's track record suggests any internal conflict would likely be bloody. In 2013, two years after Kim Jong-un took power, he had his uncle and mentor, Jang Song-thaek, arrested and executed for alleged "anti-party, counter-revolutionary, factional acts." Additionally, his older half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, once considered a potential leader, was assassinated in 2017 at Kuala Lumpur airport using VX nerve agent, after living in exile in Macao since 2003.
Health Concerns and Succession Scenarios
Speculation abounds over why Kim Jong-un, at age 42, feels the need to appoint a successor. Rumors suggest he suffers from various health issues, including being a heavy drinker and smoker, with diabetes and high blood pressure. He is estimated to weigh around 140kg (22 stones) in 2024, mirroring health problems that afflicted his father, Kim Jong-il, who died of a heart attack at 70.
A December report from 38 North, the website of the US-based Stimson Centre think tank, warned of "turbulence" in the event of Kim's sudden death and highlighted the "high likelihood of a power struggle emerging between Kim Jong-un and his potential successor candidates." The report stated that "in the immediate term, more politically established candidates, like Kim Yo-jong, are more likely to succeed in the event of Kim Jong-un's sudden death or serious illness."
It added that other candidates, such as Kim Ju-ae or her believed siblings (two boys), "are still too young and unestablished to realistically be considered for succession in the coming five to 15 years." The report concluded that "Kim Yo-jong, for example, will be able to immediately outmanoeuvre the others due to the political and military support she has garnered within the [Workers' Party of Korea]."
As North Korea prepares for its party congress, the world watches closely, anticipating potential upheaval in one of the most secretive and volatile regimes. The designation of Kim Ju-ae as heir sets the stage for a contentious battle for power, with historical precedents suggesting it may not be resolved peacefully.
