The landscape of international commerce witnessed a seismic shift in 2025, driven decisively by the trade policies of former and returning US President Donald Trump. Aimed primarily at reviving what he perceives as a declining domestic manufacturing base, these moves have dramatically altered tariff structures, injecting significant uncertainty into the global economic order that analysts warn may extend well into 2026.
A Sharp Turn in Trade Policy: The Tariff Numbers
According to data from the Yale Budget Lab, the aggressive implementation of new tariffs under Trump has propelled the United States' average tariff rate to a staggering nearly 17 per cent. This marks a monumental leap from the sub-3 per cent level recorded at the close of 2024. The financial scale of this policy shift is equally colossal. These levies are now funneling approximately 30 billion dollars a month into the coffers of the US Treasury, creating a substantial new revenue stream born directly from international trade.
The Core Objective and Global Repercussions
The central pillar of this strategy, as framed by the administration, is the revitalization of American manufacturing. By making imported goods more expensive through high tariffs, the policy intends to incentivize domestic production and bring back jobs from overseas. However, this protectionist stance has sent shockwaves through global supply chains. Trading partners worldwide, including major economies, are forced to recalibrate their export strategies and contend with increased costs for goods entering the lucrative US market.
Persistent Uncertainty on the Horizon for 2026
While the immediate fiscal and trade impacts are now being quantified, the broader economic forecast remains clouded. The uncertainty introduced by these measures is expected to persist through 2026. Businesses engaged in international trade face a challenging planning environment, unsure of whether tariffs will escalate further, remain stable, or be subject to new negotiations. This volatility affects investment decisions and long-term contracts, potentially slowing down global economic growth. The coming year will be crucial in determining whether the tariff-driven approach successfully stimulates US manufacturing as intended, or if it leads to prolonged trade tensions and market instability.
The data, reported by Reuters and last updated on 22 December 2025, underscores a definitive turn in US economic policy. As the world moves into 2026, the consequences of this tariff-heavy year will continue to unfold, defining a new chapter in international trade relations.
