New data from the US Labor Department reveals a significant cooling in the American job market, with employers posting far fewer openings in November even as the broader economy shows signs of strength. The figures point to a cautious business environment where companies are hesitant to expand their workforce.
Key Data Points: Openings Fall, Layoffs Decline
According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), businesses and government agencies reported 7.1 million open jobs at the end of November. This marks a notable drop from the 7.4 million openings posted in October. The November figure represents the lowest level since September 2024 and, excluding that month, the weakest reading in nearly five years.
Interestingly, while hiring activity remained weak, the data also showed a decline in layoffs. This pattern suggests that employers are choosing to retain their existing workers despite holding back on new hiring, creating a stagnant job market.
A 'Low-Hire, Low-Fire' Market Emerges
The current trend has led economists to describe the situation as a "low-hire, low-fire" labour market. For workers who are already employed, this environment offers a degree of job security as companies avoid letting staff go. However, for those who are unemployed or seeking new opportunities, finding a role has become more difficult.
This labour market paradox contrasts sharply with other positive economic indicators. The US economy demonstrated solid momentum in the third quarter of last year, with growth exceeding 4 per cent at an annual rate between July and September. Although growth is expected to have moderated in the final months of 2025, it is still projected to have remained resilient.
Looking Ahead to 2026: Key Questions
A major question for the US economy in 2026 is whether job creation will finally accelerate to match the pace of healthy economic growth, or if the persistent weakness in hiring will eventually start to drag the economy down.
Another possibility gaining attention is that technological advances like increased automation and the use of artificial intelligence are enabling businesses to boost output without a corresponding increase in employment. This structural shift could mean strong economic figures without a surge in job openings.
More clarity on the employment situation is expected soon. The US government is scheduled to release its comprehensive monthly jobs report for December, which will provide further insight into hiring, unemployment, and wage trends. This data follows a period of delayed releases caused by last autumn's US government shutdown.
