In a significant pivot, the United States has unveiled a revised National Security Strategy that fundamentally reshapes its global posture. Authored by economist James K. Galbraith, the analysis suggests this shift is driven by profound changes in America's material conditions, particularly in energy and critical minerals. This recalibration, moving away from a unipolar, Eurocentric worldview, could unexpectedly brighten prospects for global peace and offer new strategic opportunities for India.
The Resource Logic Behind Washington's New Worldview
The core of the new American strategy, released in December 2025, is a stark realpolitik not explicitly stated in the document: the logic of resources. The US has achieved energy self-sufficiency, with oil flowing abundantly from Texas and vast reserves accessible in Canada and Venezuela. This liberation from external energy dependence means Washington no longer needs to anchor its security to the Gulf region in West Asia or to Europe. Consequently, it can afford to seek "strategic stability" with Russia and label China as merely a "competitor," not an outright adversary.
This shift has dire implications for Europe, whose fate is seen as sealed by its lack of Russian gas. The document starkly suggests Europe faces "civilizational erasure," with Germany de-industrialising and former imperial powers like Britain and France sinking into irrelevance. With sanctions having failed, the analysis concludes that Russia's eventual victory in Ukraine is now assured.
Gallium: The Mineral That Checks American Power
If energy reshapes relations with the Gulf and Europe, a different resource dynamic dictates terms with China. The critical issue is rare earths, specifically gallium, a byproduct of refining bauxite into alumina. While China's monopoly on rare earth refining could be challenged over time, its advantage in gallium is overwhelming, estimated at a ratio of 90 to 1 compared to the US.
Since the US aluminium industry peaked in 1980, America cannot source gallium domestically on any feasible timescale. As gallium is irreplaceable in advanced microchips, the US military cannot confront China with confidence of prevailing. This hard material reality makes a détente with Beijing not just desirable but necessary for American security, a stance the new strategy implicitly accepts.
Contradictions, Regional Fallout, and India's Strategic Opening
The strategy is not without its flaws and contradictions. It is hedged with unrealistic notions, such as expecting Japan and Korea to defend the "first island chain" (a euphemism for Taiwan), an idea China quickly quashed. Economically, it seeks US re-industrialisation while protecting the global role of the dollar and its financial system—a wanting-to-have-it-all approach that may lead to policy turmoil.
Furthermore, its tone towards Latin America is described as retrograde, treating nations as dependencies and echoing a pre-Civil War mentality. However, for all its defects, the strategy acts as an ice-breaker against the old world order. It opens policy space not seen in decades, since the eras of Reagan-Gorbachev, Nixon-Mao, and Kennedy-Khrushchev.
This is where India stands to gain. The document barely mentions India, which, in this context, is an advantage. India is described as "a faraway country" that can take care of itself. Nicely balanced among great powers, India benefits immensely if a peaceful, multi-polar system prevails. The new material conditions—US energy independence, the erosion of traditional military power by missiles and drones, and the need for regional consolidation—inherently favour stability. India's diplomacy, if it chooses, can actively help steer this new reality toward a lasting peace.
The panicked reaction from European leaders and US foreign policy elites signals a colossal struggle to preserve the old order. But as Galbraith argues, they would be defending a global framework that no longer exists. The emerging conditions, shaped by oil, gas, and gallium, call for a new balance where peace and stability are paramount, offering India a unique and expanded role on the world stage.
