Gold Price Prediction: Intraday Weakness Signals Sell on Rise Strategy
Gold prices are experiencing intraday weakness, with a sell on rise strategy making sense according to market experts. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, highlights the current bearish sentiment in the precious metal market.
Current Market Position and Technical Setup
Gold April futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are trading near ₹1,59,860 after witnessing persistent selling pressure throughout the session. The price structure reflects a clear downward bias, with successive lower highs and lower lows forming on the intraday chart. Momentum indicators remain weak, suggesting that any short-term recovery toward resistance levels could attract fresh selling interest.
The technical setup reveals that price is trading below the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cluster, with the 8 EMA trending beneath the 21 EMA. Both averages are sloping downward, confirming the continuation of the bearish intraday trend. The ₹1,60,300 level aligns with the immediate moving average resistance zone, acting as a key barrier for any upward movement.
Detailed Technical Indicators and Analysis
Gold is trading near the lower Bollinger band after an extended decline, indicating strong downside momentum. A pullback toward the mid-band could provide a selling opportunity before the trend resumes. The chart shows a consistent lower-high pattern, confirming supply dominance in the market. Until prices reclaim ₹1,61,000, the broader intraday sentiment remains negative.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 23, entering oversold territory. While this may trigger a minor bounce, it does not invalidate the prevailing bearish trend. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with expanding red histogram bars, reflecting continued bearish momentum and reinforcing the downward pressure on gold prices.
Intraday Trading Strategy and Recommendations
Gold's intraday structure remains weak with strong downward momentum reflected through falling moving averages and a sub-30 RSI reading. Any pullback toward ₹1,60,300 is likely to face selling pressure. Based on this analysis, traders may consider implementing a sell on rise strategy.
Specific Trading Parameters:
- Sell Level: ₹1,60,300
- Stop-Loss: Above ₹1,61,000
- Target: ₹1,59,000
- Bias: Bearish below ₹1,60,300; trend reversal only above ₹1,61,000
The overall bias remains bearish below ₹1,60,300, with a trend reversal only considered if prices manage to break above ₹1,61,000. This technical outlook suggests that gold traders should exercise caution and consider the sell on rise approach during the current session.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India or Bharat Horizon.
