Gold Price Prediction Today: Weak Intraday Signals Prompt Sell-on-Rise Strategy
Gold prices are currently displaying weak signals on an intra-day basis, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities. He recommends a sell-on-rise strategy for traders, as the market exhibits bearish tendencies with consistent selling pressure from higher levels.
Current Market Overview
Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are trading near ₹1,52,870, having faced sustained selling pressure from elevated price points. The price action reveals a short-term downtrend characterized by the formation of lower highs, indicating that supply is dominating during rallies. The recent bounce appears to be corrective in nature, with resistance zones expected to attract fresh selling interest, further weakening the intraday outlook.
Technical Setup Analysis
The technical indicators reinforce the bearish sentiment in gold prices:
- EMA 8 & EMA 21: The price is trading below the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cluster, with EMA 8 positioned below EMA 21. This confirms a bearish crossover, and the ₹1,53,000–₹1,53,250 zone aligns with this EMA resistance, strengthening it as a key area for selling on rises.
- Bollinger Bands: Gold is trading near the lower Bollinger band, indicating sustained downside pressure. Any pullback toward the mid-band is likely to act as a selling opportunity, as it suggests temporary relief rather than a reversal.
- Price Structure: The chart shows a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term bearish trend. Unless the price reclaims ₹1,54,000, the downside bias remains intact, with further declines anticipated.
- RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 31, approaching oversold territory. While this may trigger minor pullbacks, it does not indicate a reversal yet, and the overall momentum remains weak.
- MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with weak momentum, suggesting continued bearish control over the market.
Intraday Trading View and Strategy
Based on the technical analysis, the intraday trading view for gold is bearish. The recommended strategy is to sell on rise, with specific parameters outlined below:
- Sell Zone: ₹1,53,000 – ₹1,53,250
- Stop-Loss: Above ₹1,54,000
- Target: ₹1,51,500
- Bias: Bearish below ₹1,53,250; reversal only above ₹1,54,000
Gold's intraday technical structure remains weak, supported by bearish EMA alignment, a declining RSI, and negative MACD signals. The resistance zone near ₹1,53,000–₹1,53,250 is likely to attract selling pressure, making it a critical area for executing trades.
Traders are advised to sell on rise within the given range, maintain a strict stop-loss above ₹1,54,000, and anticipate a downside move toward ₹1,51,500 during the trading session. The overall bias is to sell on rise, with resistance at ₹1,53,250 and a target of ₹1,51,500.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India or Bharat Horizon.
