IndiGo's Operational Woes Threaten to Drive Up Domestic Airfares in 2026
Domestic flight prices across India could see a significant increase during the upcoming April 2026 summer schedule, according to a new aviation market analysis. The potential price hike stems from capacity constraints triggered by IndiGo's massive flight disruptions that occurred in December 2025.
Analytics Firm Cirium Issues Warning About Aviation Market Outlook
In the Aviation Market Outlook 2026 released by analytics firm Cirium, senior consultant Richard Evans explained during a sector outlook presentation on February 4, 2026, that India's aviation growth is expected to decline for April 2026 specifically due to the IndiGo flight disruptions.
"So India is actually down at the moment for April, and that's the largest extent because of the IndiGo sort of schedule meltdown we saw before Christmas," Evans stated. "So they've had to cut their capacity, and I don't know how long this is going to carry on for, if capacity really is going to be down YoY in India. Yeah, it's not growing, but you would imagine that fares will go up in that market."
The aviation expert emphasized that if the effects of what he termed a 'schedule meltdown' continue throughout the year, resulting in a year-on-year decline in operational capacity, this development would likely push airfares higher in the domestic aviation market.
Capacity Shrinkage Threatens Previous Growth Projections
The capacity constraints stem from regulatory action taken by India's aviation authorities. The Ministry of Civil Aviation's Directorate General of Civil Aviation imposed a 10% operational cut on IndiGo's fleet, creating potential ripple effects that could extend into 2026 operations and capacity schedules.
This development marks a significant shift from previous growth projections. "India has recorded tremendously strong growth over the last couple of years," Evans noted. "In our Cirium forecast released in October 2025, we forecast that India was going to grow at about 10% per annum over the next decade."
Instead of continued expansion, Cirium is now predicting a 2% year-on-year drop in the April 2026 summer schedule compared to April 2025 numbers, assuming the effects of the IndiGo disruption persist. "We've actually got India shrinking the April 2026 schedule, which is 2% lower than April 2025," the aviation analyst confirmed.
IndiGo's Market Position Weakened by December Disruptions
The airline's operational challenges have already impacted its market dominance. IndiGo lost approximately 4% of its domestic market share in December 2025 following massive flight disruptions that month, which were triggered by updated flight duty time limitations norms implemented by the government.
According to monthly traffic data from the DGCA, IndiGo's market share dropped to 59.6% in December 2025, compared to 63.6% market share levels recorded in November 2025. The December operational crisis involved more than 4,500 cancelled flights, leaving hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded at airports across the country.
The airline continues to recover from the impact of the flight duty time limitations norm update as management works to steer operations back on track amid persistently high air travel demand in the Indian market. This recovery process, combined with the capacity restrictions imposed by regulators, creates the conditions that could lead to higher airfares for domestic travelers in 2026.
