S&P Global Ratings has stated that India is handling global financial headwinds more effectively than the headline figures indicate, and concerns surrounding foreign capital outflows may be exaggerated. The observations come at a time when the Iran conflict has triggered an oil price shock, while persistent selling in domestic equities has pushed the rupee to fresh record lows.
Current Account Deficit and Foreign Fund Withdrawals
India's current account deficit has narrowed over the past few years, although fluctuations in global crude prices now pose a risk to that improvement. Continued foreign fund withdrawals have further weighed on domestic markets, with both the rupee and Indian equities underperforming several regional peers. Latest data showed India received net foreign direct investment inflows worth $4.6 billion in February after recording outflows for six straight months.
Adequate Financial Buffers
The agency said the country has adequate financial buffers to manage a wider current account deficit that could emerge because of rising crude oil prices. YeeFarn Phua, Director for Sovereign and International Public Finance Ratings for Asia at S&P Global Ratings, made the remarks during an interview on Friday, according to a Bloomberg report. The assessment also strengthens confidence in India's macroeconomic fundamentals after S&P upgraded the country's sovereign rating to BBB from BBB- in August and maintained a stable outlook.
Outflow Fears Overstated
Phua said fears regarding net foreign investment outflows have been "somewhat overstated," noting that a large part of these outflows reflects profit repatriation rather than weakening investor confidence. She added that gross inflows into the country continue to remain healthy. "The broader picture is that the Indian economy remains fundamentally strong and continues to offer substantial investment opportunities," she said.
Emergency Measures to Strengthen Forex Reserves
To reduce the economic impact of the Iran war, India is examining a series of emergency measures aimed at strengthening foreign exchange reserves. These include the possibility of raising fuel prices and restricting non-essential imports such as gold and electronic products. The government has already raised the customs duty on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. The move is aimed at preserving forex for essential items such as crude oil and to ensure food security.
