Economic Survey Projects Robust 6.8-7.2% Growth for India, Highlights Resilience Amid Global Headwinds
India has demonstrated remarkable resilience in navigating the turbulent waters of global geopolitical and economic uncertainty, outperforming most nations and positioning itself to sustain this momentum, according to the annual Economic Survey released on Thursday. The comprehensive document projects a growth rate of 6.8% to 7.2% for the upcoming year, underscoring the nation's economic fortitude.
Reforms and Challenges: A Dual Narrative
The Survey attributes this optimistic outlook to a series of structural reforms implemented in the latter half of 2025, including significant adjustments to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) framework and the introduction of new labour codes. These measures have bolstered India's economic foundations, contributing to its ability to weather external shocks.
However, the report also issues a cautionary note, highlighting persistent challenges posed by global uncertainties. It emphasizes that while India's economic fundamentals remain strong, the rupee has underperformed and is expected to remain under pressure throughout 2026. The Survey outlines three potential scenarios for the year, noting that "only the degree and the duration will vary" depending on which unfolds.
Three Scenarios for 2026: From Stability to Systemic Risks
The 687-page document details three distinct scenarios for 2026:
- "Business as in 2025": A continuation of current economic conditions.
- Disorderly Multipolar Breakdown: A scenario involving geopolitical fragmentation and economic disruption.
- Systemic Shock Cascade: With a residual probability of 10%-20%, this involves interconnected financial, technological, and geopolitical stresses amplifying each other, rather than occurring independently.
Despite these risks, the Survey highlights a significant achievement: India recorded the highest reduction in inflation among major economies in 2025, a testament to effective policy measures.
Call for an "All-of-Society" Approach to Convert Headwinds into Tailwinds
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran, the author of the Survey, acknowledged that India's economic ambitions are confronting "powerful global headwinds." However, he asserted that these challenges could be transformed into opportunities "if the State, private sector, and households are willing to align, adapt, and commit to the scale of effort that the moment demands."
The report passionately advocates for an "all-of-society" approach, urging the private sector to enhance its role. Borrowing from Canadian PM Carney's Davos speech, it calls upon businesses to "be on the table and escape being on the menu," emphasizing proactive engagement in shaping economic outcomes rather than being passive participants.
In summary, the Economic Survey paints a picture of cautious optimism for India's economy, celebrating its resilience and reform-driven growth while soberly addressing the complexities of a volatile global landscape. The path forward, as outlined, requires collective effort and strategic adaptation to sustain momentum and mitigate risks.
