India's GDP Growth May Surpass RBI's 2026-27 Forecast, Says PM's Economic Advisor
In a significant economic outlook, S Mahendra Dev, Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, stated on Wednesday that India may exceed the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) GDP growth projection for the fiscal year 2026-27. Speaking at an interactive session with members of the Bharat Chamber of Commerce in Kolkata, Dev expressed strong confidence that the Indian economy could achieve a growth rate of 7%, surpassing the RBI's forecast of 6.9%.
Optimism Rooted in Economic Strength
"I am more positive about growth and hoping for 7%," Dev emphasized during his address. He highlighted that last year, India achieved a robust growth rate of 7.6%, despite many skeptics predicting it would not exceed 7%. "Our economy has a lot of inherent strength," he noted, underscoring the resilience and potential of India's economic framework.
Dev provided key economic indicators to support his optimism:
- India's average GDP growth over the past three years has stood at an impressive 7.3%.
- The fiscal deficit is currently at 4.4%.
- The central government's debt-to-GDP ratio is 56%.
These figures, according to Dev, reflect a stable and growing economy capable of outperforming projections.
Rupee Stability and Foreign Investment Outlook
On the currency front, Dev addressed the performance of the Indian rupee, stating that it is expected to stabilize around Rs 92-93 against the US dollar. He attributed this anticipated stability to an improvement in foreign investment flows as geopolitical tensions ease.
The rupee had previously faced pressure due to global uncertainties, including the US-Iran conflict and foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows. However, a temporary ceasefire has since calmed markets, contributing to a more favorable environment for the currency.
Addressing IMF Criticism on GDP Data
Responding to criticism from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding India's GDP data, Dev explained that structural changes in methodology are being implemented. These changes include better capture of the informal sector, which he believes should address concerns going forward. This move aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability of economic data, aligning with global standards.
Dev's remarks highlight a proactive approach to economic management and data transparency, reinforcing confidence in India's growth trajectory.
