Monsoon improvement expected to aid kharif sowing
Improved monsoon momentum in July is anticipated to support the recovery of kharif sowing, while higher water availability and reservoir levels are likely to mitigate the impact of uneven rainfall distribution across regions, according to a report by ICICI Bank.
Rainfall deficit narrows but remains uneven
The report noted that India's cumulative rainfall up to July 6, 2026, stood at 170.7 mm, which is 20% below the long period average (LPA). Although rainfall distribution remains uneven, activity has improved in recent weeks.
East and Northeast India continue to witness a significant deficit of 41% below LPA, whereas rainfall has improved in Northwest India (19% below LPA), South India (15% above LPA), and Central India (5% below LPA).
Regional rainfall patterns
Eastern states including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and North Indian states Haryana and Punjab have received less rainfall, along with Gujarat and Karnataka. The report noted that Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan have witnessed normal rainfall. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu has recorded excess rainfall.
At the sub-division level, 17 of 36 sub-divisions recorded deficient rainfall, 16 received normal rainfall, and three experienced excess precipitation, as per the report.
Strengthening monsoon activity
Despite the prevailing deficits, the monsoon activity has strengthened in recent weeks, with improved rainfall across several regions. "If sustained, this trend is expected to gradually narrow the seasonal shortfall," the report noted.
Kharif sowing lags behind last year
At the same time, the report noted that India's kharif sowing is still below last year's level. As of July 5, 2026, kharif sowing stood at 35.1 million hectares, down 20.8% year-on-year from 44.3 million hectares in the corresponding period last year, mainly due to deficient rainfall in major kharif-producing states.
Among key crops, rice, pulses, and coarse cereals witnessed the sharpest decline in acreage, while sugarcane, jute, and Mesta maintained relatively better sowing coverage.
Reservoir levels and water availability
On the other hand, the report notes that while reservoir levels remain below optimal due to the delayed monsoon, improving basin-level water availability could help mitigate near-term risks from below-normal rainfall.
El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions
As per ICICI Bank, rainfall has seen an improvement in India despite intensifying El Nino conditions. Highlighting that the Indian Ocean Dipole is in neutral territory, the report said, "Current rainfall activity is positive for sowing."
